11573 Creek Side Ln · Carmel, IN 46033

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1983 0.44 ac lot $260/sqft · 7% below area Est $405k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR Bungalow Treasure in the heart of Carmel. Cozy up to the woods in the screened porch on crisp fall evenings and starlit summer nights. Enjoy the updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless appliances. Geometric-paneled accent wall in the FR and Master bedroom give a custom feel. White-washed fireplace with hardwood mantel in the spacious family room. Updates include siding, roof, gutters, HVAC system, water heater, dishwasher, fridge and windows. 15-acre Flowing Well Park and Artesian Well are just across 116th St. Feels like a national park in your neighborhood!

Key facts

• Updated fireplace
• High-end appliances
• Wood creek community

Tags

• WOOD CREEK COMMUNITY
• SOLID OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM SURROUND
• REFINISHED CABINETRY
• HIGH-END APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: voluntary fee; Lot size approximately 0.44 acres
• HOA & community: HOA with covenants and restrictions; Community amenities include pickleball and tennis courts; HOA covers entrance common and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (finished)
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer connected; Municipal solid waste service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Mature trees and small trees on the lot; No fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with full shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic access; Screened patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodbrook Elementary School (math 85% / reading 57%, grade A-, #36 of 994 statewide, top 4%, 595 students, 13% FRL); Clay Middle School (math 56% / reading 67%, grade B+, #11 of 330 statewide, top 3%, 1,423 students, 14% FRL); Carmel High School (math 77% / reading 90%, grade A, #3 of 369 statewide, top 1%, 5,192 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $310k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,683 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,651
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -7.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11289 Woodcreek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-8%)	4mo	$305,000	$231	65
5240 Pursel Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+7%)	23mo	$452,947	$292	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-71,588
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-24,121
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46033

• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,872/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,530

Max offer price $300,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-315	+0% $-421	+5% $-527	+10% $-633
Rent	-10% $-658	-5% $-540	+0% $-421	+5% $-303	+10% $-184
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-326	base $-421	+0.5pp $-518	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6220 Wahpihani Dr Unit 1536667P Fishers, IN	2.0	2.0	1496	$7,340	$4.91	16d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $399,900 Active 1113-char remark
17. 2022-11-18
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    3BR Bungalow Treasure in the heart of Carmel. Cozy up to the woods in the screened porch on crisp fall evenings and starlit summer nights. Enjoy the updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless appliances. Geometric-paneled accent wall in the FR and Master bedroom give a custom feel. White-washed fireplace with hardwood mantel in the spacious family room. Updates include siding, roof, gutters, HVAC system, water heater, dishwasher, fridge and windows. 15-acre Flowing Well Park and Artesian Well are just across 116th St. Feels like a national park in your neighborhood!

18. 2022-10-18
    status Pending 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    3BR Bungalow Treasure in the heart of Carmel. Cozy up to the woods in the screened porch on crisp fall evenings and starlit summer nights. Enjoy the updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless appliances. Geometric-paneled accent wall in the FR and Master bedroom give a custom feel. White-washed fireplace with hardwood mantel in the spacious family room. Updates include siding, roof, gutters, HVAC system, water heater, dishwasher, fridge and windows. 15-acre Flowing Well Park and Artesian Well are just across 116th St. Feels like a national park in your neighborhood!

19. 2022-10-15
    listed $310,000 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    3BR Bungalow Treasure in the heart of Carmel. Cozy up to the woods in the screened porch on crisp fall evenings and starlit summer nights. Enjoy the updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless appliances. Geometric-paneled accent wall in the FR and Master bedroom give a custom feel. White-washed fireplace with hardwood mantel in the spacious family room. Updates include siding, roof, gutters, HVAC system, water heater, dishwasher, fridge and windows. 15-acre Flowing Well Park and Artesian Well are just across 116th St. Feels like a national park in your neighborhood!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,872 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,030 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,872
• − Insurance: −$6,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,877
• − Management: −$2,877
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Clay Schools
• NCES district ID: 1801200
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $102,347
• Composite: 63.54/100
• National rank: #608
• State rank: #1 of 301 in IN

Livability — Carmel

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 99,910
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 40,881
• Household income: $153,143
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Asian 8% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.29%
• Current HPI: 226.6783
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.44%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+21.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $375,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $399,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-18 Sold (MLS) $310,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-18 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-15 Listed $310,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,872 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.