621 N 16th St · Harrisburg, PA 17103

$50,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 6,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1900 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This listing is a short sale. The list price is not a bank approved price. At closing, the buyer will pay a fee of $6,000 to ABBA Loss Mitigation for their services. ABBA Loss Mitigation is professionally negotiating this short sale. If your buyer chooses to change the title company, ABBA Loss Mitigation will need to know immediately as it will create extra work and expenses.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.0% vs local median 6.7% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#107 in PA, #826 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Harrisburg City SD (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #535 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harrisburg Hs (math 24% / reading 10%, grade F, #399 of 437 statewide, top 92%, 1,230 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 82% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,688/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 1014% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $175k (78%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.69%
• DSCR: 4.77
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $63,778
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.8%
• Equity multiple: 13.66×
• Total profit: $177,282
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17103

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,023	-5% $1,005	+0% $988	+5% $971	+10% $954
Rent	-10% $855	-5% $921	+0% $988	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,121
Rate	-1.0pp $1,013	-0.5pp $1,001	base $988	+0.5pp $975	+1.0pp $962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-10-22
   price $50,000
2. 2025-08-11
   status Pending
3. 2025-06-20
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2013-12-09
   historical
5. 2013-06-05
   listed $119,900
6. 2012-03-01
   historical
7. 2011-10-10
   listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $9,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg City SD
• NCES district ID: 4211580
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,432
• Composite: 7.6/100
• National rank: #9945
• State rank: #535 of 539 in PA

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #826

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 184,296
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,115
• Household income: $39,825
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1014.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% White 18% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.52%
• Current HPI: 211.455
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.09%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-61.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-12-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-05 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-03-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-10 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,796 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.