24123 Wilde Dr · Magnolia, TX 77355

$232,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2018 6,442 sqft lot $116/sqft · 13% below area Est $266k · 13% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mesquite plan is a new two-story home in the peaceful community of Williams Trace, featuring an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2-1/2 baths. A spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area is at the heart of this home, while the oversized master suite with two large walk-in closets provides owners with a true retreat. The Mesquite comes complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, sprawling countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. In addition, Williams Trace features a community park and playground.

Key facts

• Low tax rate
• No back neighbors
• Extended back patio

Tags

• EXTENDED BACK PATIO
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• LOW TAX RATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Williams Trace HOA (annual fee of $300)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2018; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (20 x 16); Bedroom on second floor (14 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on first floor (6 x 12)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nichols Sawmill El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 562 students, 44% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,715 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,524
• List price: $232,000
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24169 Wilde Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,916 (-4%)	2mo	$235,000	$123	88
26047 Allan Poe Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,949 (-2%)	2mo	$223,000	$114	85
21414 Flora Springs Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,992 (-0%)	3mo	$327,000	$164	63
23436 Hillcrest Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-9%)	1mo	$385,000	$212	60
502 Easy St	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,936 (-3%)	2mo	$325,000	$168	58
25221 Big Horn Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,194 (+10%)	2mo	$389,000	$177	55
19231 Post Oak	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,905 (-4%)	7mo	$191,000	$100	48
19256 Hazel Firs Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (+11%)	6mo	$298,890	$135	45
19265 Hazel Firs Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,697 (-15%)	5mo	$285,000	$168	42
19359 Poppy Village Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,697 (-15%)	7mo	$299,990	$177	40
21510 Witham Promenade Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,697 (-15%)	3mo	$289,065	$170	39
19327 Sorel Copley Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,241 (+12%)	8mo	$349,990	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-52,798
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-65,340
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,141/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $189,617

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-174	+0% $-240	+5% $-306	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-312	+0% $-240	+5% $-168	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-181	base $-240	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24143 Wilde Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,825	$0.97	2d	1	0.06mi
26051 Allan Poe Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2329	$1,895	$0.81	44d	1	0.19mi
25069 Authors Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	6d	1	0.20mi
25189 Dickens Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,760	$0.94	25d	1	0.22mi
23019 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,715	$0.91	2d	1	0.22mi
23022 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,549	$1.10	21d	1	0.23mi
27016 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,539	$1.13	23d	1	0.27mi
27032 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,560	$1.14	25d	1	0.29mi
23048 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,649	$0.92	44d	1	0.30mi
23064 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,689	$0.90	23d	1	0.33mi
26327 Michelangelo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,580	$1.16	21d	1	0.33mi
27064 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,695	$0.90	44d	1	0.33mi
21107 Titian Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,700	$1.10	13d	1	0.38mi
26716 Frost Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,001	$1.06	0d	1	0.45mi
26732 Frost Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,776	$0.94	0d	1	0.47mi
21163 Titian Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,540	$1.13	44d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $232,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $238,900 Active 610-char remark
17. 2026-05-13
    historical
18. 2026-04-08
    status Active
19. 2026-04-06
    historical
20. 2026-03-29
    listed $249,000 Active
21. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    The Mesquite plan is a new two-story home in the peaceful community of Williams Trace, featuring an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2-1/2 baths. A spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area is at the heart of this home, while the oversized master suite with two large walk-in closets provides owners with a true retreat. The Mesquite comes complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, sprawling countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. In addition, Williams Trace features a community park and playground.

22. 2018-05-15
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    The Mesquite plan is a new two-story home in the peaceful community of Williams Trace, featuring an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2-1/2 baths. A spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area is at the heart of this home, while the oversized master suite with two large walk-in closets provides owners with a true retreat. The Mesquite comes complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, sprawling countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. In addition, Williams Trace features a community park and playground.

23. 2018-05-07
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    The Mesquite plan is a new two-story home in the peaceful community of Williams Trace, featuring an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2-1/2 baths. A spacious kitchen with adjacent dining area is at the heart of this home, while the oversized master suite with two large walk-in closets provides owners with a true retreat. The Mesquite comes complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, sprawling countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. In addition, Williams Trace features a community park and playground.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,141 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,246 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$4,141
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $238,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Listed $199,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,141 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.