16621 SW 45th St · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1994 1.50 ac lot $139/sqft · 25% above area Est $168k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for space, privacy and room to truly unwind? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.5 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, surrounded by mature trees that create a peaceful private setting. Brand new piping just completed in the home. Enjoy the outdoors from your spacious brand-new front and back decks, along with a dedicated dog run, workshop and storage shed—ideal for hobbies, projects or extra space. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from Dunnellon and Rainbow Springs and about 20 minutes to the World Equestrian Center, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of country living and nearby amenities.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Shed
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• LARGE BACK DECK
• DOG RUN
• WORKSHOP
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.7% in Rainbow Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $210k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,500
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 24.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16945 SW 46th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	5mo	$112,000	$69	67
16162 SW 44th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	13mo	$160,000	$103	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,491
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,821
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1161
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $320	+0% $261	+5% $201	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $184	+0% $261	+5% $337	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $314	base $261	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4738 SW 166th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,600	$0.90	15d	1	0.31mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	23d	1	0.68mi
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	15d	1	0.93mi
3699 SW 169th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $209,900 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-03-29
    price $209,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Looking for space, privacy and room to truly unwind? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.5 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, surrounded by mature trees that create a peaceful private setting. Brand new piping just completed in the home. Enjoy the outdoors from your spacious brand-new front and back decks, along with a dedicated dog run, workshop and storage shed—ideal for hobbies, projects or extra space. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from Dunnellon and Rainbow Springs and about 20 minutes to the World Equestrian Center, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of country living and nearby amenities.

17. 2026-01-03
    listed $199,900 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Looking for space, privacy and room to truly unwind? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.5 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, surrounded by mature trees that create a peaceful private setting. Brand new piping just completed in the home. Enjoy the outdoors from your spacious brand-new front and back decks, along with a dedicated dog run, workshop and storage shed—ideal for hobbies, projects or extra space. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from Dunnellon and Rainbow Springs and about 20 minutes to the World Equestrian Center, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of country living and nearby amenities.

18. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $76,000
19. 2018-05-14
    soldstatus $76,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Serene 3/2 split floor plan home that is located on 1.5 acres. This spacious home has been remodeled with new flooring, paint, bathroom vanities, tub, range and more. New roof 2017, new AC 2017 & new hot water heater 2015. Well was replaced 5yrs ago and septic just pumped. Partially fenced yard with 2 sheds (one with electric hooked up). Sit on the back deck and enjoy the sounds of nature. Put this home on your must see list!

20. 2018-04-17
    listed $74,900 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Serene 3/2 split floor plan home that is located on 1.5 acres. This spacious home has been remodeled with new flooring, paint, bathroom vanities, tub, range and more. New roof 2017, new AC 2017 & new hot water heater 2015. Well was replaced 5yrs ago and septic just pumped. Partially fenced yard with 2 sheds (one with electric hooked up). Sit on the back deck and enjoy the sounds of nature. Put this home on your must see list!

21. 2005-06-06
    soldstatus $82,500
22. 2005-05-27
    soldstatus $82,500
23. 2004-08-12
    listed $84,900
24. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,742 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$728/yr (+$61/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$87
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2109.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-14 Sold (MLS) $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-27 Sold (MLS) $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-12 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,014 · +27.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.