Cavco Essence Plan · Evansville, WY 82636

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 237 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.1

Key facts

• 4x4 back deck
• 8x8 front deck
• 2 car drive pad

Tags

• 2 CAR DRIVE PAD
• 8X8 FRONT DECK
• 4X4 BACK DECK

🏗️ New construction. The $69,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $70,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 5.8% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.64%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -1.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Hills Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	4mo	$70,000	$58	87
647 Wagon Trl	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-0%)	5mo	$299,900	$252	61
762 Whipsaw Dr	1.44mi	3/1.8	1,198 (+1%)	5mo	$330,000	$275	59
460 5th St St	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-2%)	5mo	$365,000	$311	58
838 Cheney Loop	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+6%)	2mo	$479,900	$381	54
637 Bozeman Trl	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	6mo	$299,000	$267	50
647 Bozeman Trl	1.39mi	3/1.8	1,107 (-7%)	3mo	$308,000	$278	50
310 S Forest Dr	1.44mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-11%)	2mo	$249,900	$237	40
502 Thelma Dr	1.20mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+21%)	2mo	$325,000	$226	38
230 S Forest Dr	1.42mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-11%)	5mo	$250,000	$237	38
970 Park Ln	1.35mi	3/1.0	960 (-19%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	34
653 7th St	1.32mi	3/3.0	1,455 (+22%)	6mo	$269,000	$185	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $27,831
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $74,736
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 132.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,000 ($76/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -22.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 82636

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $663	-5% $639	+0% $615	+5% $591	+10% $566
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $560	+0% $615	+5% $670	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $633	base $615	+0.5pp $597	+1.0pp $578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5200 Blackmore Rd Casper, WY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,592	$2.38	0d	31	0.72mi
760 Landmark Dr Casper, WY	1.0–2.0	1.0	719	$900	$1.25	0d	1	0.92mi
3900 E 12th St Casper, WY	2.0	1.0	850	$990	$1.16	0d	11	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $89,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasCentral electric for cooling
• Home design: Cavco Essence plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1191Manufactured home model (Cavco)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-05
   days on market $69,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-11-04
   days on market $69,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-11-02
   days on market $69,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-11-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-10-31
   days on market $69,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-10-30
   days on market $69,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-10-29
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-10-28
   days on market $91,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-10-27
   days on market $91,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-10-26
    days on market $91,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-10-25
    days on market $91,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-10-24
    days on market $91,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-10-23
    days on market $91,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-10-22
    days on market $91,000 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-10-21
    days on market $91,000 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-10-20
    days on market $91,000 Active 221 DOM
17. 2026-10-19
    days on market $91,000 Active 220 DOM
18. 2026-10-18
    days on market $91,000 Active 219 DOM
19. 2026-10-17
    days on market $91,000 Active 218 DOM
20. 2026-10-16
    days on market $91,000 Active 217 DOM
21. 2026-10-15
    days on market $91,000 Active 216 DOM
22. 2026-10-14
    days on market $91,000 Active 215 DOM
23. 2026-10-13
    days on market $91,000 Active 214 DOM
24. 2026-10-12
    days on market $91,000 Active 213 DOM
25. 2026-10-11
    days on market $91,000 Active 212 DOM
26. 2026-10-10
    days on market $91,000 Active 211 DOM
27. 2026-10-09
    days on market $91,000 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-10-08
    days on market $91,000 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-10-07
    days on market $91,000 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-10-06
    days on market $91,000 Active 207 DOM
31. 2026-10-05
    days on market $91,000 Active 206 DOM
32. 2026-10-04
    days on market $91,000 Active 205 DOM
33. 2026-10-04
    days on market $91,000 Active 204 DOM
34. 2026-10-02
    days on market $91,000 Active 203 DOM
35. 2026-10-01
    days on market $91,000 Active 202 DOM
36. 2026-09-30
    days on market $91,000 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-09-29
    days on market $91,000 Active 200 DOM
38. 2026-09-28
    days on market $91,000 Active 199 DOM
39. 2026-09-27
    days on market $91,000 Active 198 DOM
40. 2026-09-26
    days on market $91,000 Active 197 DOM
41. 2026-09-25
    days on market $91,000 Active 196 DOM
42. 2026-09-24
    days on market $91,000 Active 195 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $91,000 Active 194 DOM
44. 2026-09-22
    days on market $91,000 Active 193 DOM
45. 2026-09-21
    days on market $91,000 Active 192 DOM
46. 2026-09-20
    days on market $91,000 Active 191 DOM
47. 2026-09-18
    pricedays on marketlisting id $91,000 Active 189 DOM
48. 2026-09-17
    days on market $89,000 Active 150 DOM
49. 2026-09-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 149 DOM
50. 2026-09-15
    days on market $89,000 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $5,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Cavco Essence Plan manufactured home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good exterior and interior finishes, and a well-maintained foundation. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch — A front porch can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woods Learning Center F WY #118/151 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle C Y Middle School B WY #23/55 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Kelly Walsh High School C- WY #18/75 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evansville, WY
• County: Natrona · 98,530 people
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,856
• Household income: $82,592
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own

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Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.77%
• Current HPI: 195.2252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $89,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasCentral electric for cooling
• Home design: Cavco Essence plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1191Manufactured home model (Cavco)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area