2128 Derby Dr · Seagoville, TX 75159

$305,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $171/sqft · at area comps Est $307k · at est. $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Turquoise is a divine single-story floor plan offering the flexibility you need to unlock your creative energy. A flex room near the front of the house could be a home office but could also house your ceramics studio or jewelry-making business. Unleash your inner interior decorator in the great room. Tie the family room, dining area and kitchen together with your favorite art and knick knacks. The Turquoise has two bedrooms where homeowners can decorate to please themselves. Then again, if you have been talking about canceling your gym membership and setting up the ultimate workout room, this plan is the one for you.

Key facts

• Flex room
• Great room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• FLEX ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• ULTIMATE WORKOUT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seagoville North El (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 767 students, 90% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,884 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,243
• List price: $305,990
• Delta: -0.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Derby Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,790 (0%)	1mo	$305,900	$171	97
2213 Derby Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,790 (0%)	1mo	$305,900	$171	96
2226 Derby Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,790 (0%)	0mo	$309,400	$173	94
2134 Derby Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (+1%)	1mo	$289,990	$160	91
2127 Derby Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+11%)	0mo	$303,490	$153	80
2121 Derby Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+11%)	0mo	$303,490	$153	80
2216 Derby Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,975 (+10%)	0mo	$306,990	$155	79
2023 Chestnut Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+2%)	0mo	$319,000	$174	76
1943 Furlong Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+2%)	1mo	$311,449	$170	75
1932 Furlong Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+2%)	0mo	$303,949	$166	74
1938 Furlong Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+2%)	1mo	$307,949	$168	74
2018 Colt Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-7%)	1mo	$296,281	$179	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-71,723
• Equity at exit: $45,624

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-109,258
• Equity at exit: $26,456

Cash invested: $85,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.2 mo (46%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $312,307 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 24 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75159

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,748

Max offer price $271,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-130	+0% $-236	+5% $-342	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-333	+0% $-236	+5% $-139	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-158	base $-236	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,498
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1928 Laurel Park Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,350	$1.24	38d	1	0.15mi
2008 Bronco Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2062	$2,490	$1.21	0d	1	0.27mi
15133 Ace Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2079	$2,400	$1.15	10d	1	0.29mi
15127 Athena Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,300	$1.43	19d	1	0.34mi
1131 Elijah Way Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	70d	1	0.36mi
915 Presleigh Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,395	$1.53	32d	1	0.39mi
915 Presleigh Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,295	$1.47	17d	1	0.39mi
2702 Marotto Way Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,199	$1.44	1d	1	0.47mi
1934 Furlong Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,450	$1.19	0d	1	0.47mi
1934 Furlong Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,450	$1.19	3d	1	0.47mi
1930 Furlong Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,450	$1.19	0d	1	0.48mi
1930 Furlong Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,450	$1.19	3d	1	0.48mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	48d	1	0.49mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	61d	1	0.49mi
2603 Hutchins Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,975	$1.03	93d	1	0.52mi
2513 Broken Bow Dr Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.5	2205	$2,750	$1.25	17d	1	0.53mi
2708 Corbo Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,400	$1.15	70d	1	0.54mi
15008 Baikal Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2524	$2,700	$1.07	93d	1	0.58mi
2820 Jordan Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,950	$1.11	48d	1	0.59mi
2616 Ontario Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,700	$1.49	27d	1	0.64mi
2806 Balleywood Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,050	$1.11	34d	1	0.67mi
2815 Briarbrook Dr Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,200	$1.42	3d	1	0.70mi
1249 Eagle Mountain Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,750	$1.51	48d	1	0.71mi
2905 Englenook Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,149	$1.01	93d	1	0.73mi
1428 Victoria St Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2203	$3,695	$1.68	93d	1	0.79mi
639 Arlington Park Ct Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,299	$1.15	71d	1	1.20mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,349	$1.06	69d	1	1.22mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,195	$0.99	0d	1	1.22mi
740 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,350	$1.17	19d	1	1.23mi
2028 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,095	$1.16	17d	1	1.23mi
2033 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,250	$1.02	43d	1	1.23mi
2030 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,185	$0.99	56d	1	1.25mi
1933 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,219	$1.00	43d	1	1.29mi
2017 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,095	$0.95	43d	1	1.29mi
1935 Hialeah Dr Unit 1935HD Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,145	$1.07	4d	1	1.31mi
1921 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,995	$1.13	56d	1	1.31mi
1927 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,145	$1.07	43d	1	1.33mi
6120 Lumley Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,300	$1.42	0d	1	1.33mi
620 Fountain Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,300	$0.89	70d	1	1.34mi
2012 Canterbury Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	41d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $56/mo · $672/yr

• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-26
   days on market $305,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-24
   days on market $305,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $305,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   remarks 628-char remark
6. 2026-06-17
   listed $305,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,140
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$8,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or tenant to move in and enjoy a comfortable living space with minimal renovations needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Seagoville North El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Seagoville Middle F TX #1,407/1,662 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Kathlyn Joy Gilliam Collegiate Academy C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Seagoville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagoville, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 23,456
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,456
• Household income: $72,897
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 32% Two or more races 20% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.45%
• Current HPI: 321.2065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B