1901 Hickory Ave · Panama City, FL 32405

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1958 0.26 ac lot $124/sqft · 22% below area Est $224k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large cozy 3br/1ba ranch style block home on a 1/4 acre corner lot in Panama City! Lots of room inside and out with 3 large living areas and a huge fenced back yard. Home is centrally located, close to schools, shopping, a lovely upgraded park and playground almost next door, and home is also not too far from the most beautiful beaches in the world! Home is solid with lots of interior upgrade potential for the kitchen, bedrooms and the living areas. New roof and A/C in 2019 even though home was minimally affected by Hurricane Michael. Seller will consider a flooring allowance. There is a large workshop and sheds in the back yard, all with electric service and gated access through gates from 19th Street. Great place for pets too! Excellent home to make your own, and priced to sell. .. !

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Centrally located
• Close to park

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HUGE FENCED BACK YARD
• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $175k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,990
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -21.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 W 20th St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,412 (+0%)	1mo	$115,000	$81	80
1712 Foster Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-3%)	4mo	$325,000	$238	74
1812 Foster Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (-6%)	3mo	$220,000	$167	73
1717 Arthur Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (-13%)	1mo	$128,000	$105	61
2400 W 16th St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+5%)	6mo	$255,000	$172	59
1404 Chestnut Ave	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,350 (-4%)	7mo	$346,500	$257	56
2703 W 18th St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (-13%)	6mo	$246,000	$202	55
1408 Wilmont Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+8%)	0mo	$300,000	$196	49
3108 W 20th Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	4mo	$127,400	$80	44
2333 Cincinnati Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,489 (+6%)	2mo	$325,000	$218	44
1409 Hickory Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,282 (-9%)	6mo	$225,000	$176	44
1615 Molitor Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,227 (-13%)	7mo	$262,000	$214	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,708
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,153
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $327	+0% $277	+5% $228	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $210	+0% $277	+5% $345	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $322	base $277	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	22d	1	0.17mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	22d	1	0.21mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	22d	1	0.78mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	22d	1	0.88mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	14d	1	1.02mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	22d	1	1.03mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	22d	1	1.22mi
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	22d	1	1.27mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,382	$1.38	14d	12	1.31mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	14d	1	1.32mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	22d	5	1.42mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 122 DOM
19. 2026-03-30
    price $185,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Large cozy 3br/1ba ranch style block home on a 1/4 acre corner lot in Panama City! Lots of room inside and out with 3 large living areas and a huge fenced back yard. Home is centrally located, close to schools, shopping, a lovely upgraded park and playground almost next door, and home is also not too far from the most beautiful beaches in the world! Home is solid with lots of interior upgrade potential for the kitchen, bedrooms and the living areas. New roof and A/C in 2019 even though home was minimally affected by Hurricane Michael. Seller will consider a flooring allowance. There is a large workshop and sheds in the back yard, all with electric service and gated access through gates from 19th Street. Great place for pets too! Excellent home to make your own, and priced to sell. .. !

20. 2026-03-05
    price $199,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Large cozy 3br/1ba ranch style block home on a 1/4 acre corner lot in Panama City! Lots of room inside and out with 3 large living areas and a huge fenced back yard. Home is centrally located, close to schools, shopping, a lovely upgraded park and playground almost next door, and home is also not too far from the most beautiful beaches in the world! Home is solid with lots of interior upgrade potential for the kitchen, bedrooms and the living areas. New roof and A/C in 2019 even though home was minimally affected by Hurricane Michael. Seller will consider a flooring allowance. There is a large workshop and sheds in the back yard, all with electric service and gated access through gates from 19th Street. Great place for pets too! Excellent home to make your own, and priced to sell. .. !

21. 2026-01-22
    listed $215,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Large cozy 3br/1ba ranch style block home on a 1/4 acre corner lot in Panama City! Lots of room inside and out with 3 large living areas and a huge fenced back yard. Home is centrally located, close to schools, shopping, a lovely upgraded park and playground almost next door, and home is also not too far from the most beautiful beaches in the world! Home is solid with lots of interior upgrade potential for the kitchen, bedrooms and the living areas. New roof and A/C in 2019 even though home was minimally affected by Hurricane Michael. Seller will consider a flooring allowance. There is a large workshop and sheds in the back yard, all with electric service and gated access through gates from 19th Street. Great place for pets too! Excellent home to make your own, and priced to sell. .. !

22. 2006-08-18
    listed $192,000
23. 2001-08-01
    soldstatus $59,190
24. 2001-06-14
    listed $61,000
25. 1997-03-12
    soldstatus $62,000
26. 1997-03-01
    soldstatus $62,000
27. 1996-10-29
    listed $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+168.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $185,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-08-18 Listed $192,000 ECAR
• 2001-08-01 Sold (MLS) $59,190 CPARMLS
• 2001-06-14 Listed $61,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-03-12 Sold (MLS) $62,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-29 Listed $68,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.