15835 Lowell · Conroe, TX 77316

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2019 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 15835 Lowell Ln in Montgomery, TX—where peaceful living meets everyday convenience near Lake Conroe. Tucked into a quiet community, this beautifully maintained home offers the kind of space, layout, and charm that you’ve been searching for. Step inside to an open-concept design filled with natural light, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it the heart of the home for gatherings and slow mornings alike. A thoughtfully designed floor plan offers privacy where you want it and connection where you need it. Outside, enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, play, or future outdoor living dreams. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and top Montgomery ISD schools, this home delivers the lifestyle, location, and comfort buyers crave near Lake Conroe.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,092 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,029
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,331
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $168	+0% $105	+5% $41	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $23	+0% $105	+5% $186	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $162	base $105	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2283 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $225,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Welcome to 15835 Lowell Ln in Montgomery, TX—where peaceful living meets everyday convenience near Lake Conroe. Tucked into a quiet community, this beautifully maintained home offers the kind of space, layout, and charm that you’ve been searching for. Step inside to an open-concept design filled with natural light, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it the heart of the home for gatherings and slow mornings alike. A thoughtfully designed floor plan offers privacy where you want it and connection where you need it. Outside, enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, play, or future outdoor living dreams. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and top Montgomery ISD schools, this home delivers the lifestyle, location, and comfort buyers crave near Lake Conroe.

16. 2026-04-06
    listed $235,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Welcome to 15835 Lowell Ln in Montgomery, TX—where peaceful living meets everyday convenience near Lake Conroe. Tucked into a quiet community, this beautifully maintained home offers the kind of space, layout, and charm that you’ve been searching for. Step inside to an open-concept design filled with natural light, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, making it the heart of the home for gatherings and slow mornings alike. A thoughtfully designed floor plan offers privacy where you want it and connection where you need it. Outside, enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, play, or future outdoor living dreams. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and top Montgomery ISD schools, this home delivers the lifestyle, location, and comfort buyers crave near Lake Conroe.

17. 2022-01-06
    soldstatus Sold 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

18. 2021-12-07
    status Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

19. 2021-11-28
    status Option Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

20. 2021-11-19
    status Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

21. 2021-11-19
    status Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

22. 2021-11-12
    status Option Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

23. 2021-11-08
    listed $190,000 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Charming new Clayton home with tons of great features! Spacious living room with built-in entertainment enter. Primary suite tucked behind living room. Primary bathroom includes large soaking tub, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk in closet. Laundry room connects to primary bathroom and features counter space and refrigerator hookups. Cozy dining area opens to kitchen. Kitchen features an island, dual farm sink, and massive walk in pantry! Large windows throughout illuminate the entire home with natural lighting! Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom located behind kitchen. Front and back porches are brand new! 1/2 acre lot! Vinyl flooring through entire home (no carpet!). Zoned to Montgomery ISD!

24. 2020-10-30
    historical
25. 2020-09-15
    price $180,000
26. 2020-08-11
    price $185,000
27. 2020-08-05
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$93/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $1,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-11-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-09-15 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-05 Listed $190,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,996 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.