512 Citrus Cir · San Juan, TX 78589

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1987 4,138 sqft lot $100/sqft · 14% below area Est $105k · 14% under $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHECK OUT this furnished 2 bed/2 bath home in Orangewood Estates. This home is located in a quaint little 55+ community in San Juan where you can sit on the back covered deck and enjoy the warm South Texas breezes. This home features a split bedroom floor plan with a spacious living /dining room combo. The large kitchen features plenty of storage and counter space to prep any size meals! Both bathrooms have been recently remodeled and feature handicapped accessible walk-in showers! The entry features a screened in patio and wheel chair ramp if needed. The exterior includes a 12 x 12 shed for storage or workshop! If you want to OWN YOUR LOT and enjoy laid back living, plus good fellowship, Orangewood Estates just may be the place for you!

Key facts

• 12 x 12 shed
• Screened in patio
• 4,138 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• RECENTLY REMODELED BATHROOMS
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• 12 X 12 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,900
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -14.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-999
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $16,705
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $238	+0% $213	+5% $187	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $170	+0% $213	+5% $256	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $236	base $213	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1410 State Ave San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	0.43mi
913 E 13th St #1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	45d	1	0.56mi
1702 Angelina Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1037	$1,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.66mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	45d	1	1.02mi
1108 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	1.0	1.0	708	$875	$1.24	45d	1	1.03mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	45d	1	1.06mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	24d	1	1.06mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	22d	1	1.07mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	1.18mi
1513 W Crockett St Unit 16 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	598	$745	$1.25	45d	1	1.25mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	15d	1	1.34mi
913 S 13th St Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	45d	1	1.41mi
404 N Cesar Chavez Rd Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	783	$1,079	$1.38	45d	2	1.42mi
1807 S Linden St Unit A Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$900	$0.94	45d	1	1.42mi
1604 E Quail St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$850	$0.89	45d	1	1.45mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.45mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	45d	1	1.49mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	22d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    price $90,000 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    CHECK OUT this furnished 2 bed/2 bath home in Orangewood Estates. This home is located in a quaint little 55+ community in San Juan where you can sit on the back covered deck and enjoy the warm South Texas breezes. This home features a split bedroom floor plan with a spacious living /dining room combo. The large kitchen features plenty of storage and counter space to prep any size meals! Both bathrooms have been recently remodeled and feature handicapped accessible walk-in showers! The entry features a screened in patio and wheel chair ramp if needed. The exterior includes a 12 x 12 shed for storage or workshop! If you want to OWN YOUR LOT and enjoy laid back living, plus good fellowship, Orangewood Estates just may be the place for you!

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $95,000 Active 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    CHECK OUT this furnished 2 bed/2 bath home in Orangewood Estates. This home is located in a quaint little 55+ community in San Juan where you can sit on the back covered deck and enjoy the warm South Texas breezes. This home features a split bedroom floor plan with a spacious living /dining room combo. The large kitchen features plenty of storage and counter space to prep any size meals! Both bathrooms have been recently remodeled and feature handicapped accessible walk-in showers! The entry features a screened in patio and wheel chair ramp if needed. The exterior includes a 12 x 12 shed for storage or workshop! If you want to OWN YOUR LOT and enjoy laid back living, plus good fellowship, Orangewood Estates just may be the place for you!

18. 2008-04-30
    soldstatus
19. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $90,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $95,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2008-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,478 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.