1512 Kraft Ave · Cedar Grove, FL 32405

$529,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1985 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Comp Purposes

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1985

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• EXCELLENT RENTAL HISTORY
• SEPARATELY METERED UTILITIES
• GREAT CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Property sits on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 112 ft by 92 ft

Interior

• Bedrooms: Eight bedrooms (all located on the second floor)
• Bathrooms: 6 full bathrooms; 4 half bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $202/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $529k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#445 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,350/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $529,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,628
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2712 Oak Hammock Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+1%)	0mo	$182,000	$175	62
2722 Oak Hammock Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+1%)	8mo	$185,000	$178	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-43,716
• Equity at exit: $78,876

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-9,047
• Equity at exit: $45,738

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 33.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,103/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,124
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,329

Max offer price $529,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,106	-5% $956	+0% $807	+5% $657	+10% $507
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $595	+0% $807	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,229
Rate	-1.0pp $1,073	-0.5pp $941	base $807	+0.5pp $670	+1.0pp $530

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2.0	1.5	$5,348
Total (4 units)			$5,350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 N James Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,275	$1.31	23d	1	0.20mi
2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	23d	1	0.27mi
1401 Transmitter Rd Unit 15 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	15d	1	0.82mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,100	$1.16	23d	1	0.99mi
725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	23d	1	1.19mi
3914 E 11th St #301 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.20mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $529,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 415-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 378-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   listed $529,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,103 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,103 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$5,103
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,136
• − Management: −$5,136
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable income: $1,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$278
• After-tax cash flow: $9,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cedar Grove

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #8018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Grove, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $529,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $499,917 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $525,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $539,917 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $549,917 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $559,917 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $565,917 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $575,917 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $599,917 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $599,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Sold (MLS) $400,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-01-18 Listed $400,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,103 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.