46842 Patuxent Rd · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$169,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,240 sqft · Townhouse public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1976 2,040 sqft lot $136/sqft · 14% below area Est $197k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This charming 2-story townhome in Lexington Park is ready for its next owner! Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a spacious living room, and a country kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and dining, this home offers both comfort and functionality. Enjoy the convenience of being close to shopping, schools, and NAS Patuxent River, making daily living easy and accessible. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this home is a fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Close to schools
• 2 story townhome

Tags

• 2 STORY TOWNHOME
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO NAS PATUXENT RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $169k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,717
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -14.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46838 Rogers Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,240 (0%)	10mo	$199,000	$160	90
46850 Patuxent Rd	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,240 (0%)	12mo	$214,999	$173	89
46855 Rogers Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,240 (0%)	13mo	$210,000	$169	87
46829 Rogers Dr	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,240 (0%)	20mo	$210,000	$169	82
46834 Rogers Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,240 (0%)	21mo	$199,000	$160	81
46856 Rogers Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+3%)	16mo	$210,000	$165	80
46843 S Shangri La Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	5mo	$187,000	$142	76
46832 Flower Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+6%)	18mo	$190,000	$144	70
46874 Flower Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+6%)	18mo	$190,000	$144	69
46827 S Shangri La Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+6%)	23mo	$195,000	$148	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,406
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $39,300
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $694	+0% $647	+5% $599	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $561	+0% $647	+5% $733	+10% $819
Rate	-1.0pp $732	-0.5pp $690	base $647	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $169,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Welcome Home! This charming 2-story townhome in Lexington Park is ready for its next owner! Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a spacious living room, and a country kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and dining, this home offers both comfort and functionality. Enjoy the convenience of being close to shopping, schools, and NAS Patuxent River, making daily living easy and accessible. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this home is a fantastic opportunity!

18. 2026-03-24
    historical

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Welcome Home! This charming 2-story townhome in Lexington Park is ready for its next owner! Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a spacious living room, and a country kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and dining, this home offers both comfort and functionality. Enjoy the convenience of being close to shopping, schools, and NAS Patuxent River, making daily living easy and accessible. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this home is a fantastic opportunity!

19. 2025-10-21
    listed $179,000 Active
20. 2025-10-08
    historical
21. 2012-06-21
    soldstatus $36,915 Sold
22. 2012-06-21
    soldstatus $36,915
23. 2012-04-30
    status Contract
24. 2012-04-30
    historical
25. 2012-04-20
    price $35,000
26. 2012-04-19
    status Active
27. 2012-03-24
    historical Withdrawn
28. 2012-02-27
    price $42,900
29. 2012-01-23
    price $47,900
30. 2011-12-31
    status Active
31. 2011-12-24
    historical Expired
32. 2011-12-23
    listed $49,900 Active
33. 2011-12-23
    listed $35,000
34. 2011-07-26
    historical
35. 2011-07-26
    historical
36. 2011-06-16
    price Active
37. 2011-06-16
    status Active
38. 2011-02-09
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
39. 2011-01-01
    status Active
40. 2010-10-13
    historical
41. 2010-09-04
    listed Active
42. 2010-09-03
    listed $45,000
43. 2010-06-01
    historical Expired
44. 2010-06-01
    historical
45. 2009-12-15
    price
46. 2009-12-12
    price
47. 2009-12-09
    status Active
48. 2009-12-01
    historical Expired
49. 2009-05-28
    price
50. 2009-05-28
    status

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$18/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $6,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+255.8% since first listed

50 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-06-21 Sold (MLS) $36,915 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-06-21 Sold (MLS) $36,915 MRIS
• 2012-04-30 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-20 Price Changed $35,000 MRIS
• 2012-04-19 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-03-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-02-27 Price Changed $42,900 MRIS
• 2012-01-23 Price Changed $47,900 MRIS
• 2011-12-31 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-12-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-12-23 Listed $49,900 MRIS
• 2011-12-23 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-07-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-06-16 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-06-16 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-02-09 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-01-01 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-10-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-09-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-09-03 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-06-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-12-12 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-12-09 Relisted — MRIS
• 2009-12-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-05-28 Relisted — MRIS
• 2009-05-28 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-05-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-03-26 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-12-05 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-10-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-10-24 Listed $115,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-25 Sold (MLS) $137,900 MRIS
• 2005-10-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-02 Listed $141,900 MRIS
• 2005-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MRIS
• 2005-05-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-05-23 Listed $71,000 MRIS
• 1981-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $47,368 Public Records
• 1978-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.