347 Sabinal St · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2014 7,841 sqft lot $162/sqft · 129% above area $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A nice affordable place to call home on a quiet tree lined street. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home could also be a great rental property! This gated neighborhood amenities include a swimming pool, playground and boat ramp access to Lake Palestine.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Swimming pool
• Boat ramp access

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $200 annual fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single story
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Lake frontage (Lake Palestine)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heating; Cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.35%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $31,986
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 103.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $24,572
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $66,562
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $153/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $65,000 Active 243-char remark
18. 1994-06-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $153 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 677.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$153
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $5,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $65,000 GTAR
• 1994-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $153 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.