402 Marion · Merkel, TX 79536

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1978 0.31 ac lot Est $108k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gutted and ready for new investor, large lot convenient to Stargate. Quiet area with great potential for profit.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Quiet area
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• QUIET AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.3% in Merkel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#517 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.79%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 High Cotton Pkwy	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	13mo	$55,000	$45	48
411 Orange	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-8%)	16mo	$99,900	$80	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $16,586
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $51,434
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79536

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 El Paso Merkel, TX	3.0	1.0	920	$1,200	$1.30	13d	1	0.10mi
202 Cherry Merkel, TX	2.0	1.0	1164	$1,095	$0.94	21d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $75,000 Active 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Gutted and ready for new investor, large lot convenient to Stargate. Quiet area with great potential for profit.

17. 2024-05-17
    soldstatus
18. 2024-03-05
    soldstatus
19. 2014-05-21
    soldstatus Closed 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This is a unique home with lots of real pine wood replacing floors and walls, cedar closet in master bedroom, Pellet stove for affordable heating, front and back porch, water well, trees, 2 large pantrys in kitchen, double windows, two nice storage areas, metal roof, workshop

20. 2014-04-30
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This is a unique home with lots of real pine wood replacing floors and walls, cedar closet in master bedroom, Pellet stove for affordable heating, front and back porch, water well, trees, 2 large pantrys in kitchen, double windows, two nice storage areas, metal roof, workshop

21. 2014-04-04
    price $28,000 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This is a unique home with lots of real pine wood replacing floors and walls, cedar closet in master bedroom, Pellet stove for affordable heating, front and back porch, water well, trees, 2 large pantrys in kitchen, double windows, two nice storage areas, metal roof, workshop

22. 2014-04-04
    listed $42,500 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This is a unique home with lots of real pine wood replacing floors and walls, cedar closet in master bedroom, Pellet stove for affordable heating, front and back porch, water well, trees, 2 large pantrys in kitchen, double windows, two nice storage areas, metal roof, workshop

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $4,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merkel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830340
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,594
• Composite: 32.22/100
• National rank: #5774
• State rank: #460 of 826 in TX

Livability — Merkel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #10181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merkel, TX
• City population: 6,080
• Population (ZIP): 6,080

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 203.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+76.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-04-04 Price Changed $28,000 NTREIS
• 2014-04-04 Listed $42,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.