11552 229th St · New York, NY 11411

$440,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1955 4,000 sqft lot Est $688k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cambria Heights! Great opportunity to own a detached home featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The home offers a spacious living room, dining area, and a large eat-in kitchen. Unfinished basement with plenty of potential for additional space or storage. Conveniently located near public transportation, schools, and shopping.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Unfinished basement
• Detached home

Tags

• DETACHED HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $436k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $433k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $433,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $687,932
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11552 229th St	0.00mi	5/3.0	1,106 (0%)	0mo	$419,000	$379	100
114-66 225th St	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,100 (-0%)	5mo	$739,000	$672	76
22117 Murdock Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+3%)	4mo	$711,000	$622	57
505 Parkway Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (+6%)	13mo	$750,000	$641	56
116-24 238th St	0.48mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-2%)	6mo	$655,000	$604	56
115-31 237th St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,271 (+15%)	3mo	$657,000	$517	50
219-43 113th Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,026 (-7%)	2mo	$750,000	$731	49
114-35 223rd St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (+8%)	17mo	$675,000	$567	49
11909 224th St	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,268 (+15%)	0mo	$800,000	$631	43
11580 217th St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,200 (+8%)	12mo	$760,000	$633	42
216-24 115th Ter	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	972 (-12%)	12mo	$570,000	$586	33
119-34 230th St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,239 (+12%)	9mo	$755,000	$609	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-45,160
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-5,496
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11411

• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$543 /mo · $6,517/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$915
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,840

Max offer price $440,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10713 220th St Queens Village, NY	4.0	2.0	1350	$4,999	$3.70	20d	1	0.88mi
218-13 Jamaica Ave Unit 2FL Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	24d	1	1.50mi
218-13 Jamaica Ave Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	750	$3,800	$5.07	7d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-30
   listed $440,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,517 · $543/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,976 · $581/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$6,517
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,184
• − Management: −$4,184
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$535
• After-tax cash flow: $5,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 20,501

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8%
• Foreign-born: 41% · Canada, Mexico, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.42%
• Current HPI: 299.6176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $440,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,517 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.