17153 Park Ln · Bernie, MO 63822

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Other public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great First Home Buyer home. This three bedroom and 1 bath home has had some updates. Does need some work. Located outside city limits. Currently rented. I will have photos of the house available soon.

Key facts

• Built 1965
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Bernie R-XIII (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #34 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $30,573
• Equity at exit: $36,869

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $79,199
• Equity at exit: $59,397

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63822

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $580

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bernie R-XIII
• NCES district ID: 2904950
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3055
• State rank: #34 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bernie

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #9377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,562

Population outlook (Stoddard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,096 people
• By 2030: 28,478 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 27,073 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 25,512 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 21,740 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stoddard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.8pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.0 2016: R+69.3 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+39.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 143.7346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $404 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.