277 S Paseo Pena Unit A · Green Valley, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +12.1/15.0
- Cash flow +7.1/30.0
- 1% rule +6.6/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- DSCR +1.3/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$112,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Desirable end unit on quiet street in award-winning subdivision in central Green Valley. Clean and bright two bedrooms, 1 bath, plus front patio with fruit bearing fig tree, looking onto lovely lawn and park. This community has four pools, several parks, shuffle board and other recreation within complex. Close distance to shopping and restaurants! GVR deeded unit. HOA takes care of the roof, termites, A/C and heating units, water, trash collection and roads. Great for full time or seasonal rental. Come check out this adorable place.
Key facts
- Quiet street
- Front patio
- End unit
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (20.8% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
- Recommended offer: $89k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.16% ✓
- Cap rate
- 4.57%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.15%
- DSCR
- 0.73
- GRM
- 7.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $124,659
- List price
- $112,000
- Delta
- -10.16%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 291 S La Cañada Dr Unit A | 0.08mi | 2/1.0 | 696 (0%) | 0mo | $93,000 | $134 | 96 |
| 437 S Paseo Madera Unit A | 0.20mi | 2/1.0 | 696 (0%) | 0mo | $121,000 | $174 | 91 |
| 436 S Paseo Madera Unit B | 0.18mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 654 (-6%) | 2mo | $109,500 | $167 | 75 |
| 436 S Paseo Cerro Unit B | 0.27mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 648 (-7%) | 1mo | $100,000 | $154 | 70 |
| 277 S Paseo Pena Unit C | 0.01mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 0mo | $76,000 | $129 | 69 |
| 344 S Paseo Pena Unit B | 0.08mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 1mo | $119,000 | $202 | 65 |
| 263 S Paseo Madera Unit C | 0.13mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 2mo | $97,000 | $165 | 63 |
| 364 S Paseo Lobo Unit C | 0.16mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 0mo | $102,000 | $173 | 62 |
| 176 S Paseo Sarta Unit B | 0.19mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 0mo | $124,000 | $211 | 61 |
| 291 S Paseo Lobo #C | 0.20mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 2mo | $89,900 | $153 | 59 |
| 346 S Paseo Aguila Unit B | 0.27mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 0mo | $85,000 | $145 | 57 |
| 468 S Paseo Aguila Unit C | 0.33mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 588 (-16%) | 1mo | $75,000 | $128 | 54 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -21.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.21×
- Total profit
- $-24,632
- Equity at exit
- $16,700
- IRR
- -7.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.41×
- Total profit
- $-18,473
- Equity at exit
- $9,684
Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 4 active · 11 under contract
- Median asking
- $142,000 ($204/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 129 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -12.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85614
- Rents YoY
- 5.6%
- Active inventory
- 601
- Price-to-rent
- 7.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,295 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$587
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
- Insurance
- −$47
- HOA
- −$410
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$272
- Net cashflow
- $-161
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-83 | -5% $-122 | +0% $-161 | +5% $-199 | +10% $-238 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-263 | -5% $-212 | +0% $-161 | +5% $-109 | +10% $-58 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-104 | -0.5pp $-132 | base $-161 | +0.5pp $-190 | +1.0pp $-219 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,000
- Closing costs
- $3,360
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322 S La Canada Dr Unit D Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,200 | $1.72 | 82d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 329 S Paseo Pena Apt A Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,150 | $1.65 | 10d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 232 S Paseo Pena Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,000 | $1.70 | 58d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 386 S La Canada Dr Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $1,150 | $1.92 | 10d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,025 | $1.47 | 110d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,050 | $1.79 | 74d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 248 S Paseo Lobo Unit D Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,150 | $1.65 | 10d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,000 | $1.44 | 119d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 132 S Paseo Sarta Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 10d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 58d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,100 | $1.58 | 87d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,100 | $1.58 | 112d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,250 | $2.13 | 119d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,100 | $1.87 | 58d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 97d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 119d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 469 S Paseo Lobo Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 10d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 321 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 596 | $1,000 | $1.68 | 4d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 321 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 596 | $1,000 | $1.68 | 10d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 478 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,000 | $1.70 | 63d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 119d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 480 S Paseo Aguila Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $925 | $1.57 | 77d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 480 S Paseo Aguila Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $950 | $1.62 | 77d | 1 | 0.36mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Community poolParkShuffleboardHOA provides laundry facilitiesMonthly HOA feeHOA transfer feeHOA covers blanket insurance, common area maintenance, roof repair, sewer, street maintenance, water
Exterior
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Sewer connected
- Home design
- CondominiumSingle-storyLevel access
- Construction
- Slump block and stucco constructionBuilt-up roof
- Exterior features
- PatioPaved road accessSubdivided lot
Interior
- Kitchen
- DisposalRefrigeratorGas ovenMicrowave
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- DisposalRefrigeratorGas ovenMicrowave
HOA detail $410/mo · $4,920/yr condo
- Likely covers
- watertrashpool
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-14days on market $112,000 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $112,000 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $112,000 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $112,000 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $112,000 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $112,000 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $112,000 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $112,000 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $112,000 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $112,000 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $112,000 Active 198 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $112,000 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $112,000 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $112,000 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $112,000 Active 192 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $112,000 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $112,000 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $112,000 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $112,000 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $112,000 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $112,000 Active 184 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $112,000 Active 183 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $112,000 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $112,000 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $112,000 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $112,000 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $112,000 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $112,000 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $112,000 Active 175 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $112,000 Active 174 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $112,000 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $112,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $112,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $112,000 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $112,000 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $112,000 Active 166 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $112,000 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $112,000 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $112,000 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $112,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $112,000 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $112,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $112,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $112,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $112,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $112,000 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $112,000 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $112,000 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $112,000 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $112,000 Active 148 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,545
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,274
- − Property taxes
- −$1,680
- − Insurance
- −$560
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,244
- − Management
- −$1,244
- − HOA
- −$4,920
- − Depreciation
- −$3,258
- Taxable loss
- −$3,634
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$872
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,056/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This end-unit townhouse in a desirable Green Valley subdivision is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property offers a quiet street location, a front patio with a fruit-bearing fig tree, and access to community amenities. Paint the exterior walls to enhance curb appeal and resale value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
- Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Continental Elementary District (4416)
- NCES district ID
- 0402250
- Math proficiency
- 35% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $48,475
- Composite
- 33.08/100
- National rank
- #5565
- State rank
- #72 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Green Valley
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #165
- US rank
- #18276
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Green Valley, AZ
- County
- Pima County · 1,066,056 people
- City population
- 25,381
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,381
- Household income
- $64,879
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 29% of renters
Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,066,056 people
- By 2030
- 1,086,684 · +1.9%
- By 2040
- 1,117,160 · +4.8%
- By 2050
- 1,149,778 · +7.9%
- By 2075
- 1,271,480 · +19.3%
- By 2100
- 1,321,160 · +23.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (80%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Pima
- 2024 margin
- D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -231.05%
- Current HPI
- 250.5933
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.60%
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
-25.8% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Price Changed $115,000 MLSSAZ
- 2026-02-23 Price Changed $119,000 MLSSAZ
- 2026-01-19 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
- 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
- 2025-03-28 Price Changed $150,000 MLSSAZ
- 2025-01-11 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
- 2023-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
- 2023-03-22 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…