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277 S Paseo Pena Unit A
D Composite 41.77
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.1/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.1/30.0
  • 1% rule +6.6/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.9/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • DSCR +1.3/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$112,000

277 S Paseo Pena Unit A · Green Valley, AZ 85614
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo · 208 Days on market
Built 1964 Good condition $161/sqft · 10% below area Est $125k · 10% under $410/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Desirable end unit on quiet street in award-winning subdivision in central Green Valley. Clean and bright two bedrooms, 1 bath, plus front patio with fruit bearing fig tree, looking onto lovely lawn and park. This community has four pools, several parks, shuffle board and other recreation within complex. Close distance to shopping and restaurants! GVR deeded unit. HOA takes care of the roof, termites, A/C and heating units, water, trash collection and roads. Great for full time or seasonal rental. Come check out this adorable place.

Key facts

  • Quiet street
  • Front patio
  • End unit

Tags

END UNITQUIET STREETAWARD WINNING SUBDIVISIONFRONT PATIOFRUIT BEARING FIG TREEFOUR POOLS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (20.8% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
  • Recommended offer: $89k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
  • Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $88,754 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.16%
Cap rate
4.57%
Cash-on-cash
-6.15%
DSCR
0.73
GRM
7.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$124,659
List price
$112,000
Delta
-10.16%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
291 S La Cañada Dr Unit A 0.08mi 2/1.0 696 (0%) 0mo $93,000 $134 96
437 S Paseo Madera Unit A 0.20mi 2/1.0 696 (0%) 0mo $121,000 $174 91
436 S Paseo Madera Unit B 0.18mi 1/1.0 (-1) 654 (-6%) 2mo $109,500 $167 75
436 S Paseo Cerro Unit B 0.27mi 1/1.0 (-1) 648 (-7%) 1mo $100,000 $154 70
277 S Paseo Pena Unit C 0.01mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 0mo $76,000 $129 69
344 S Paseo Pena Unit B 0.08mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 1mo $119,000 $202 65
263 S Paseo Madera Unit C 0.13mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 2mo $97,000 $165 63
364 S Paseo Lobo Unit C 0.16mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 0mo $102,000 $173 62
176 S Paseo Sarta Unit B 0.19mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 0mo $124,000 $211 61
291 S Paseo Lobo #C 0.20mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 2mo $89,900 $153 59
346 S Paseo Aguila Unit B 0.27mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 0mo $85,000 $145 57
468 S Paseo Aguila Unit C 0.33mi 1/1.0 (-1) 588 (-16%) 1mo $75,000 $128 54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-21.9%
Equity multiple
0.21×
Total profit
$-24,632
Equity at exit
$16,700
10-year hold
IRR
-7.9%
Equity multiple
0.41×
Total profit
$-18,473
Equity at exit
$9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
4 active · 11 under contract
Median asking
$142,000 ($204/sqft)
Median days on market
129 d
This list price
25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-12.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85614

Rents YoY
5.6%
Active inventory
601
Price-to-rent
7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,295 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$587
Tax est. 1.5%
$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
Insurance
$47
HOA
$410
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$272
Net cashflow
$-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499
Max offer price $88,754
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-83 -5% $-122 +0% $-161 +5% $-199 +10% $-238
Rent -10% $-263 -5% $-212 +0% $-161 +5% $-109 +10% $-58
Rate -1.0pp $-104 -0.5pp $-132 base $-161 +0.5pp $-190 +1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$28,000
Closing costs
$3,360
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 23 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
322 S La Canada Dr Unit D Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,200 $1.72 82d 1 0.05mi
329 S Paseo Pena Apt A Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,150 $1.65 10d 1 0.05mi
232 S Paseo Pena Unit C Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,000 $1.70 58d 1 0.05mi
386 S La Canada Dr Unit C Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 600 $1,150 $1.92 10d 1 0.10mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,025 $1.47 110d 1 0.15mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,050 $1.79 74d 1 0.16mi
248 S Paseo Lobo Unit D Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,150 $1.65 10d 1 0.18mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,000 $1.44 119d 1 0.20mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Unit B Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $2,000 $3.40 10d 1 0.20mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $2,000 $3.40 58d 1 0.20mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,100 $1.58 87d 1 0.21mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ 2.0 1.0 696 $1,100 $1.58 112d 1 0.21mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,250 $2.13 119d 1 0.21mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,100 $1.87 58d 1 0.22mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,200 $2.04 97d 1 0.24mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,200 $2.04 119d 1 0.24mi
469 S Paseo Lobo Unit B Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,200 $2.04 10d 1 0.28mi
321 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 596 $1,000 $1.68 4d 1 0.29mi
321 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 596 $1,000 $1.68 10d 1 0.29mi
478 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $1,000 $1.70 63d 1 0.30mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $2,000 $3.40 119d 1 0.31mi
480 S Paseo Aguila Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $925 $1.57 77d 1 0.36mi
480 S Paseo Aguila Unit C Green Valley, AZ 1.0 1.0 588 $950 $1.62 77d 1 0.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Community poolParkShuffleboardHOA provides laundry facilitiesMonthly HOA feeHOA transfer feeHOA covers blanket insurance, common area maintenance, roof repair, sewer, street maintenance, water

Exterior

Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Sewer connected
Home design
CondominiumSingle-storyLevel access
Construction
Slump block and stucco constructionBuilt-up roof
Exterior features
PatioPaved road accessSubdivided lot

Interior

Kitchen
DisposalRefrigeratorGas ovenMicrowave
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
1 full bathroom
Heating & cooling
Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
DisposalRefrigeratorGas ovenMicrowave

HOA detail $410/mo · $4,920/yr condo

Likely covers
watertrashpool
Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-14
    days on market $112,000 Active 208 DOM
  2. 2026-08-13
    days on market $112,000 Active 207 DOM
  3. 2026-08-12
    days on market $112,000 Active 206 DOM
  4. 2026-08-11
    days on market $112,000 Active 205 DOM
  5. 2026-08-10
    days on market $112,000 Active 204 DOM
  6. 2026-08-09
    days on market $112,000 Active 203 DOM
  7. 2026-08-08
    days on market $112,000 Active 202 DOM
  8. 2026-08-07
    days on market $112,000 Active 201 DOM
  9. 2026-08-06
    days on market $112,000 Active 200 DOM
  10. 2026-08-05
    days on market $112,000 Active 199 DOM
  11. 2026-08-04
    days on market $112,000 Active 198 DOM
  12. 2026-08-03
    days on market $112,000 Active 197 DOM
  13. 2026-07-31
    days on market $112,000 Active 194 DOM
  14. 2026-07-30
    days on market $112,000 Active 193 DOM
  15. 2026-07-30
    days on market $112,000 Active 192 DOM
  16. 2026-07-28
    days on market $112,000 Active 191 DOM
  17. 2026-07-26
    days on market $112,000 Active 189 DOM
  18. 2026-07-24
    days on market $112,000 Active 187 DOM
  19. 2026-07-23
    days on market $112,000 Active 186 DOM
  20. 2026-07-22
    days on market $112,000 Active 185 DOM
  21. 2026-07-21
    days on market $112,000 Active 184 DOM
  22. 2026-07-20
    days on market $112,000 Active 183 DOM
  23. 2026-07-18
    days on market $112,000 Active 181 DOM
  24. 2026-07-18
    days on market $112,000 Active 180 DOM
  25. 2026-07-16
    days on market $112,000 Active 179 DOM
  26. 2026-07-15
    days on market $112,000 Active 178 DOM
  27. 2026-07-14
    days on market $112,000 Active 177 DOM
  28. 2026-07-13
    days on market $112,000 Active 176 DOM
  29. 2026-07-13
    days on market $112,000 Active 175 DOM
  30. 2026-07-11
    days on market $112,000 Active 174 DOM
  31. 2026-07-10
    days on market $112,000 Active 173 DOM
  32. 2026-07-09
    days on market $112,000 Active 172 DOM
  33. 2026-07-07
    days on market $112,000 Active 170 DOM
  34. 2026-07-06
    days on market $112,000 Active 169 DOM
  35. 2026-07-05
    days on market $112,000 Active 168 DOM
  36. 2026-07-03
    days on market $112,000 Active 166 DOM
  37. 2026-07-02
    days on market $112,000 Active 165 DOM
  38. 2026-07-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 164 DOM
  39. 2026-06-30
    days on market $112,000 Active 163 DOM
  40. 2026-06-29
    days on market $112,000 Active 162 DOM
  41. 2026-06-28
    days on market $112,000 Active 161 DOM
  42. 2026-06-27
    days on market $112,000 Active 160 DOM
  43. 2026-06-27
    days on market $112,000 Active 159 DOM
  44. 2026-06-25
    days on market $112,000 Active 157 DOM
  45. 2026-06-22
    days on market $112,000 Active 155 DOM
  46. 2026-06-21
    days on market $112,000 Active 154 DOM
  47. 2026-06-18
    days on market $112,000 Active 151 DOM
  48. 2026-06-17
    days on market $112,000 Active 150 DOM
  49. 2026-06-16
    days on market $112,000 Active 149 DOM
  50. 2026-06-15
    days on market $112,000 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$15,545
− Mortgage interest
−$6,274
− Property taxes
−$1,680
− Insurance
−$560
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,244
− Management
−$1,244
− HOA
−$4,920
− Depreciation
−$3,258
Taxable loss
−$3,634
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$872
After-tax cash flow
$-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,480–$10,440 screening

This end-unit townhouse in a desirable Green Valley subdivision is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property offers a quiet street location, a front patio with a fruit-bearing fig tree, and access to community amenities. Paint the exterior walls to enhance curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
  • Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Continental Elementary School F AZ #418/1,109 Nat'l #20,973/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

District
Continental Elementary District (4416)
NCES district ID
0402250
Math proficiency
35% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$48,475
Composite
33.08/100
National rank
#5565
State rank
#72 of 249 in AZ
C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Green Valley

Score
61/100
State rank
#165
US rank
#18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Green Valley, AZ
County
Pima County · 1,066,056 people
City population
25,381
Metro
Tucson, AZ
Population (ZIP)
25,381
Household income
$64,879
Rent vs Own
16.7% rent · 83.3% own
Severe rent burden
29% of renters

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,066,056 people
By 2030
1,086,684 · +1.9%
By 2040
1,117,160 · +4.8%
By 2050
1,149,778 · +7.9%
By 2075
1,271,480 · +19.3%
By 2100
1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity
White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada, China
Languages at home
87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

2024 margin
D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing
+9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
All cycles
2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-25.8% since first listed
8 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-12 Price Changed $115,000 MLSSAZ
  • 2026-02-23 Price Changed $119,000 MLSSAZ
  • 2026-01-19 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
  • 2025-04-09 Listing Removed MLSSAZ
  • 2025-03-28 Price Changed $150,000 MLSSAZ
  • 2025-01-11 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
  • 2023-03-27 Listing Removed MLSSAZ
  • 2023-03-22 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…