110 Red Bud Rd · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$92,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1972 0.30 ac lot $85/sqft · 48% below area Est $177k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

Key facts

• Lake cabin
• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• 0.87 ACRES NEAR THE LAKE
• WALK TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• LAKE CABIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $92k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.41%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,290
• List price: $92,500
• Delta: -47.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
174 Fairhill	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,148 (+5%)	7mo	$35,500	$31	78
177 Hickory Trl	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	3mo	$165,000	$162	75
202 Thunderbird Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$183	50
237 Ben Lacy Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+9%)	8mo	$375,000	$315	38
202 Meadow Lake Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+15%)	11mo	$239,000	$191	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,793
• Equity at exit: $13,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $18,962
• Equity at exit: $7,998

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,980/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $402	+0% $376	+5% $350	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $318	+0% $376	+5% $433	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $399	base $376	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	0.70mi
138 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,235	$0.95	13d	1	0.80mi
140 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,480	$1.14	44d	1	0.80mi
149 Sunset Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	25d	1	0.88mi
158 Westview Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	7d	1	0.90mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	44d	1	0.95mi
204 Wildflower Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,624	$1.20	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,500 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,500 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,500 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,500 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,500 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,500 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $92,500 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $96,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

18. 2026-03-31
    price $99,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

19. 2026-03-03
    price $104,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

20. 2026-02-23
    price $109,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

21. 2025-12-17
    price $115,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

22. 2025-12-06
    listed $145,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

23. 2025-12-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN TIMBER TRAILS LAKE COMMUNITY - 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, 1-CAR CARPORT ATTACHED, BIG DECK, AND METAL BUILDING - NO HOA OR POA, INVESTOR SPECIAL , DIY , SOLD AS-IS , 0.30 ACRES. METAL ROOF, AC IS FAIRLY NEW, GOOD BONES. THIS HOUSE NEEDS COSMETIC TLC , GREAT FIXER UPPER , CLOSE TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE. GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY, COULD BE YOUR RETIREMENT HOME , YOUR WEEKEND GET-A-WAY PLACE , LAKE CABIN , WHO WANTS A GREAT PROPERTY NEAR THE LAKE?

24. 2025-11-22
    price $152,000
25. 2025-11-21
    price $154,900
26. 2025-11-03
    status Active
27. 2025-10-31
    historical
28. 2025-10-27
    price $159,900
29. 2025-09-30
    price $164,900
30. 2025-08-27
    price $169,900
31. 2025-08-01
    listed $174,900 Active
32. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$2,980
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $3,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$799
• After-tax cash flow: $3,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+223.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $96,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $104,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $152,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $154,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,980 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.