2525 29th Ln E · Palmetto, FL 34221

$379,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,680 sqft lot 2-car garage $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this impressive Lynwood home. Included features: a welcoming covered porch; a convenient powder room; a well-appointed kitchen boasting a spacious island, stainless-steel appliances, and quartz countertops; an adjacent dining area; a great room overlooking a tranquil covered patio; a central laundry; a main-floor primary suite boasting a private bath with double sinks and a spacious walk-in closet; a versatile loft; a shared bath with double sinks; and three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets. You'll also love the smart thermostat, smart front-door lock, video doorbell, and professional landscaping. Learn more today!

Key facts

• Walls of windows
• Soaring ceilings
• Natural light

Tags

• SOARING CEILINGS
• OVERSIZED DOORS
• WALLS OF WINDOWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL

🏗️ New construction. The $379,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-738 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,041 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,499
• List price: $379,999
• Delta: -7.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2512 29th Ln E	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,130 (0%)	3mo	$416,999	$196	92
2416 29th Ln E	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,130 (0%)	2mo	$399,999	$188	91
2447 29th Ln E	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+2%)	3mo	$402,000	$185	89
2318 29th Ave E	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,202 (+3%)	1mo	$350,000	$159	75
2509 29th Ln E	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,350 (+10%)	1mo	$419,999	$179	73
2451 29th Ln E	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,350 (+10%)	1mo	$412,999	$176	71
2516 29th Ln E	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,350 (+10%)	0mo	$419,999	$179	70
2504 29th Ln E	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,410 (+13%)	3mo	$413,000	$171	65
3338 Lannister Cv	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,989 (-7%)	2mo	$354,049	$178	58
2102 28th Street Ct E	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+14%)	0mo	$555,000	$228	57
3216 Hopewell Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,989 (-7%)	1mo	$376,650	$189	56
3151 Hopewell Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,333 (+10%)	1mo	$412,000	$177	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-121,720
• Equity at exit: $61,356

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-197,529
• Equity at exit: $35,579

Cash invested: $115,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.4 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $394,999 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,158
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,172/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $304,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-596	+0% $-738	+5% $-880	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-957	-5% $-848	+0% $-738	+5% $-629	+10% $-519
Rate	-1.0pp $-531	-0.5pp $-633	base $-738	+0.5pp $-845	+1.0pp $-953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,875
• Closing costs: $12,345
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Gary Ave Unit Mave Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2156	$2,700	$1.25	19d	1	1.18mi
3911 Willow Walk Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,356	$1.19	19d	1	1.24mi
305 Linden Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,300	$1.41	19d	1	1.26mi
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	61d	1	1.26mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	47d	1	1.32mi
2524 6th Ct E Ellenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2286	$2,650	$1.16	27d	1	1.43mi
2654 6th Ct E Ellenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1922	$2,474	$1.29	27d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.1 acre (approximately 435 sq m)Road surface: Brick and pavedZoning: PDRPermit number BLD2508-3403
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA: Richmond American HomesHOA requiredHOA fee $996 annually ($83 monthly)Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garageGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableBB/HS internet availableWater connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Single family residenceNew construction (projected completion August 31, 2026)Two storiesNortheast facingUnder construction
• Construction: Stucco and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofBlock/other/slab foundationBuilt by Richmond American Homes (model: Lynwood)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioSliding doorsIrrigation equipmentBrick and paved road accessPublic maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSplit bedroom layoutWalk-in closetsOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

HOA detail $83/mo · $996/yr

• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $379,999 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $379,999 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $379,999 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $379,999 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $379,999 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $379,999 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $379,999 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $379,999 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $379,999 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $379,999 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $379,999 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $379,999 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $389,999 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $389,999 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $389,999 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,999 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,999 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $389,999 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $389,999 Active 65 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $389,999 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $389,999 Active 63 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $389,999 Active 62 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $389,999 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $389,999 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $389,999 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $389,999 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $389,999 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $389,999 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $389,999 Active 53 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $389,999 Active 52 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $389,999 Active 51 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $389,999 Active 50 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $389,999 Active 49 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $409,999 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $409,999 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $409,999 Active 47 DOM

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Discover this impressive Lynwood home. Included features: a welcoming covered porch; a convenient powder room; a well-appointed kitchen boasting a spacious island, stainless-steel appliances, and quartz countertops; an adjacent dining area; a great room overlooking a tranquil covered patio; a central laundry; a main-floor primary suite boasting a private bath with double sinks and a spacious walk-in closet; a versatile loft; a shared bath with double sinks; and three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets. You'll also love the smart thermostat, smart front-door lock, video doorbell, and professional landscaping. Learn more today!

37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $409,999 Active 46 DOM

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Discover this impressive Lynwood home. Included features: a welcoming covered porch; a convenient powder room; a well-appointed kitchen boasting a spacious island, stainless-steel appliances, and quartz countertops; an adjacent dining area; a great room overlooking a tranquil covered patio; a central laundry; a main-floor primary suite boasting a private bath with double sinks and a spacious walk-in closet; a versatile loft; a shared bath with double sinks; and three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets. You'll also love the smart thermostat, smart front-door lock, video doorbell, and professional landscaping. Learn more today!

38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $409,999 Active 44 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $409,999 Active 42 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $409,999 Active 41 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $409,999 Active 38 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $409,999 Active 37 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $409,999 Active 36 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $409,999 Active 35 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $409,999 Active 33 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $409,999 Active 32 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $409,999 Active 30 DOM

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Discover this impressive Lynwood home. Included features: a welcoming covered porch; a convenient powder room; a well-appointed kitchen boasting a spacious island, stainless-steel appliances, and quartz countertops; an adjacent dining area; a great room overlooking a tranquil covered patio; a central laundry; a main-floor primary suite boasting a private bath with double sinks and a spacious walk-in closet; a versatile loft; a shared bath with double sinks; and three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets. You'll also love the smart thermostat, smart front-door lock, video doorbell, and professional landscaping. Learn more today!

48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $409,999 Active 29 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $409,999 Active 28 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $409,999 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,050
• − Property taxes: −$6,172
• − Insurance: −$2,057
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$11,971
• Taxable loss: −$16,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,917
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This property is under construction and is not yet habitable. The listing provides details about the home's design and features, but no photos are available to assess its condition or make value-add recommendations.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blackburn Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.1 acre (approximately 435 sq m)Road surface: Brick and pavedZoning: PDRPermit number BLD2508-3403
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA: Richmond American HomesHOA requiredHOA fee $996 annually ($83 monthly)Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garageGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableBB/HS internet availableWater connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Single family residenceNew construction (projected completion August 31, 2026)Two storiesNortheast facingUnder construction
• Construction: Stucco and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofBlock/other/slab foundationBuilt by Richmond American Homes (model: Lynwood)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioSliding doorsIrrigation equipmentBrick and paved road accessPublic maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSplit bedroom layoutWalk-in closetsOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-27 Price Changed $389,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $399,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $409,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $399,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-02 Listed $409,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $409,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $415,299 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $416,299 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid