1550 Lynchburg Rd · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1959 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom block home featuring an open-concept layout and desirable split floor plan. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating a functional layout for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the in-ground pool and fully fenced backyard, offering privacy and plenty of space for outdoor activities. With no HOA restrictions, you'll have the flexibility to make the property your own. Please note that the property is experiencing settlement and is being offered as a cash-only sale. This presents a unique opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Conven

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Split floor plan
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• IN-GROUND POOL
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-4; Lot dimensions approximately 148 x 100 feet; Lot size about 0.43 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Private in-ground fiberglass pool
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Home faces west; Homestead property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area and living area reported in public records
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Cross-fenced yard; Shed(s) / storage; Trees and landscaping; Level lot; Asphalt-paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Blinds and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.28%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $823
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $33,018
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $437	+0% $395	+5% $352	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $327	+0% $395	+5% $463	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $433	base $395	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Sunset Cir Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,100	$0.94	3d	1	0.45mi
4824 Osprey Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,950	$1.20	24d	1	0.88mi
2500 21st St NW #56 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1184	$1,800	$1.52	24d	1	1.14mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	1.22mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	24d	1	1.25mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	24d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	24d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	24d	1	1.32mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.35mi
2430 Willow Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$1,795	$1.26	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$586
• After-tax cash flow: $4,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.