Juniper Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$319,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,170 Sq. Ft. Come home to Azalea, a vibrant community in Brookshire, TX that blends peaceful country living with modern convenience. The award-winning Juniper offers the best of single-story living with a layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. A welcoming entry leads into the heart of the home, where the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen come together in a seamless open-concept design. The kitchen features a large island and spacious walk-in pantry, while easy access to the covered patio creates a natural connection between indoor and outdoor living.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Primary suite
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Pattison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,240 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,990
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -1.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Magnolia View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-0%)	3mo	$329,990	$152	94
344 Magnolia View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,211 (+2%)	1mo	$334,990	$152	92
309 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,272 (+5%)	5mo	$390,843	$172	84
313 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,311 (+6%)	3mo	$319,990	$138	83
336 Magnolia View Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,968 (-9%)	2mo	$299,990	$152	80
312 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-14%)	2mo	$289,990	$156	72
321 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-14%)	5mo	$361,762	$194	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-76,619
• Equity at exit: $48,457

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-116,436
• Equity at exit: $28,099

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 81 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 48.6 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,990 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 69% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $287,203

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-149	+0% $-261	+5% $-373	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-360	+0% $-261	+5% $-162	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-178	base $-261	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,248
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 13 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 12 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $319,990 Active 11 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 10 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 9 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 8 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 7 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 6 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 5 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $319,990 Active 4 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 3 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $319,990 Active 2 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on marketlisting id $319,990 Active 1 DOM
31. 2026-09-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 130 DOM
32. 2026-09-25
    days on market $319,990 Active 129 DOM
33. 2026-09-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 128 DOM
34. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $319,990 Active 127 DOM
35. 2026-09-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 126 DOM
36. 2026-09-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 125 DOM
37. 2026-09-20
    days on market $325,990 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-09-19
    days on market $325,990 Active 123 DOM
39. 2026-09-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-09-17
    days on market $325,990 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-09-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-09-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-09-14
    days on market $325,990 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-09-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-09-12
    days on market $325,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-09-11
    days on market $325,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-09-05
    days on market $325,990 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-09-04
    days on market $325,990 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-09-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-08-31
    days on market $325,990 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,204
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$8,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 18 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms