12302 Beacon Tree Ct · Atascocita, TX 77346

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2003 6,276 sqft lot Est $251k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A GREAT HOME FOR ENTERTAINING WITH A SPACIOUS LIVING AREA, LARGE OPEN KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH A BAY WINDOW. SPLIT BEDROOMS FOR PRIVACY. MASTER BATH HAS GARDEN TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS. CERAMIC TILE IN ENTRY, KITCHEN, BREAKFAST, AND LAUNDRY ROOM. THE CORNER LOT HAS A FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM. SOLAR SCREENS. A GREAT BY AS IS.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Quartz countertops
• Brand new flooring

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• FRESHLY PAINTED WALLS
• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atascocita Springs El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 989 students, 37% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,072 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12302 Beacon Tree Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$139	95
12107 English Brook Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-9%)	2mo	$260,000	$159	76
12127 Carriage Oak Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-11%)	2mo	$256,000	$160	71
4910 Blue Spruce Hl	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-1%)	0mo	$268,000	$151	69
4826 Gypsy Forest Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-0%)	1mo	$249,999	$140	68
12311 Carriage Oak Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-15%)	5mo	$229,999	$151	64
11831 Rainbow Bridge Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-1%)	3mo	$239,000	$135	61
17806 June Forest Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$132	58
12218 Glen Crossing Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-15%)	4mo	$195,000	$128	56
4814 Winding Timbers Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-11%)	0mo	$264,900	$165	54
12223 Zenith Ridge Way	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,049 (+14%)	5mo	$255,000	$124	53
4826 Drew Forest Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (+12%)	1mo	$268,700	$134	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,507
• Equity at exit: $60,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,643
• Equity at exit: $64,417

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$548 /mo · $6,571/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,531

Max offer price $217,072

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	11d	1	0.20mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	0.26mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	44d	1	0.52mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.56mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	4d	1	0.59mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,336	$1.08	5d	1	0.69mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	24d	1	0.70mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	5d	1	0.74mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	24d	1	0.79mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	0.88mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.92mi
19100 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,475	$1.42	2d	10	1.14mi
17417 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,795	$1.88	3d	12	1.17mi
3918 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,650	$1.75	15d	13	1.22mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.23mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,163	$1.99	1d	42	1.29mi
17571 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,950	$2.11	2d	43	1.35mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.36mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	15d	1	1.41mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	1.41mi
17260 W Lake Houston Pkwy Atascocita, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$2,470	$2.32	1d	12	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   status Active
4. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-24
   historical
6. 2026-02-19
   listed $250,000 Active
7. 2011-08-25
   soldstatus 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   THIS IS A GREAT HOME FOR ENTERTAINING WITH A SPACIOUS LIVING AREA, LARGE OPEN KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH A BAY WINDOW. SPLIT BEDROOMS FOR PRIVACY. MASTER BATH HAS GARDEN TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS. CERAMIC TILE IN ENTRY, KITCHEN, BREAKFAST, AND LAUNDRY ROOM. THE CORNER LOT HAS A FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM. SOLAR SCREENS. A GREAT BY AS IS.

8. 2011-06-17
   historical 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   THIS IS A GREAT HOME FOR ENTERTAINING WITH A SPACIOUS LIVING AREA, LARGE OPEN KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH A BAY WINDOW. SPLIT BEDROOMS FOR PRIVACY. MASTER BATH HAS GARDEN TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS. CERAMIC TILE IN ENTRY, KITCHEN, BREAKFAST, AND LAUNDRY ROOM. THE CORNER LOT HAS A FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM. SOLAR SCREENS. A GREAT BY AS IS.

9. 2011-06-08
   listed $84,900 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   THIS IS A GREAT HOME FOR ENTERTAINING WITH A SPACIOUS LIVING AREA, LARGE OPEN KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH A BAY WINDOW. SPLIT BEDROOMS FOR PRIVACY. MASTER BATH HAS GARDEN TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS. CERAMIC TILE IN ENTRY, KITCHEN, BREAKFAST, AND LAUNDRY ROOM. THE CORNER LOT HAS A FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM. SOLAR SCREENS. A GREAT BY AS IS.

10. 2007-07-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,571 · $548/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,571 · $548/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,571
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+194.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2011-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-06-08 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2007-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,571 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.