1610 Reynolds Rd · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? FOR SALE BY OWNER ?? $169,900 Welcome to easy Florida living in the desirable Citrus Woods 55+ Mobile Home Park & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; and the best part & acirc; & euro; & brvbar; YOU OWN YOUR LOT & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; NO LOT RENT! ?? ?? Home Features: ?? 2 Bedroom | 2 Bathroom ?? 1,344 Sq Ft ?? air and heat unit installed 2021 ?? durable metal roof ?? Updated flooring throughout ?? Renovated bathrooms with modern vanities ?? Fresh textured & amp; painted paneling ?? Updated kitchen countertops, cabinet fronts & amp; hardware ??10 x19 Florida room with new aluminum blinds and ?? brand new vinyl plank flooring, ??2 inch Plantation

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• New aluminum blinds
• Renovated bathrooms

Tags

• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• MODERN VANITIES
• UPDATED KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ALUMINUM BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-483/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $170k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,734 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,779
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-42,443
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,188/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,448

Max offer price $162,796

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	23d	1	0.37mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	14d	1	0.64mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	14d	1	0.64mi
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	3d	1	0.84mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	3d	1	0.88mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	23d	1	0.89mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	23d	1	0.92mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	3d	1	0.94mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	23d	1	0.97mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	23d	1	0.97mi
2919 Maine Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,275	$1.12	14d	1	1.32mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.36mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.36mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	11d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $169,900 Active
15. 2016-03-31
    soldstatus $52,000
16. 2014-04-23
    soldstatus $46,000
17. 2007-01-22
    soldstatus $73,000
18. 1995-03-20
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,188
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$819
• After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $169,900 FSBO.com
• 2016-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,188 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.