3905 Mariam Rd · Temple, TX 76502

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1970 10,628 sqft lot $142/sqft · 13% below area Est $200k · 13% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very affordable and Great location! Discover a wonderful opportunity with this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a 2-car garage, an updated kitchen, updated windows, and a recently installed roof. The major improvements are already in place—now it’s ready for someone with vision to add the finishing touches. With a little TLC, this home can easily become a very comfortable residence or a strong addition to an investor’s rental portfolio. Bring your offers. Conveniently located near the hospital, shopping, and dining, the home offers both comfort and accessibility. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for an affordable starter home or an investor seeking your next proj

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Natural gas connected; Public trash collection; Public water available; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single-story house; Resale property; Slab foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Brick veneer construction
• Construction: Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Chain link fence around back yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Some gas appliances
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Separate shower; Shower only; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,101 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -12.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1709 Avalon Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,263 (+2%)	6mo	$104,000	$82	87
3906 Lancelot Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+2%)	8mo	$205,000	$163	81
1825 Linwood Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,186 (-4%)	7mo	$167,500	$141	77
3901 Rosemary Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (+8%)	2mo	$195,000	$146	70
4413 Lone Star Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+11%)	1mo	$200,000	$146	61
4612 Canyon Rdg	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+7%)	1mo	$200,000	$152	60
1826 Linwood Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+12%)	12mo	$184,900	$134	57
4706 Stone Ridge Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-1%)	13mo	$175,000	$143	56
2007 Stratford Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+4%)	6mo	$215,000	$168	55
1318 Paseo Del Cobre	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+3%)	13mo	$165,000	$130	54
1912 Waterbury Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	3mo	$223,000	$166	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-39,265
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-59,847
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,702

Max offer price $157,101

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-51	+0% $-101	+5% $-150	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-163	+0% $-101	+5% $-39	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-56	base $-101	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3914 S 31st St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,250	$0.99	14d	1	0.04mi
3906 Mariam Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.05mi
1613 Avalon Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,650	$1.19	24d	1	0.05mi
3809 Lancelot Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,645	$1.18	44d	1	0.18mi
3608 S 31st St Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,135	$1.14	14d	2	0.25mi
1914 Buckskin Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	44d	1	0.28mi
1319 Calle de Bronce Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.35mi
1416 Paseo Del Oro Temple, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	14d	2	0.39mi
1409 Calle Nogal St Temple, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	14d	1	0.50mi
764 Marlandwood Rd Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,655	$1.70	14d	33	0.59mi
1053 Cavendish Ave Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,295	$1.29	44d	1	0.65mi
3323 Kickapoo Dr Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,400	$1.39	44d	1	0.66mi
4609 High Pointe Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,545	$1.34	44d	1	0.73mi
623 Azalea Dr Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,899	$1.70	14d	13	0.74mi
3306 S 13th St Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,350	$1.34	44d	1	0.77mi
507 Marlandwood Rd Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,699	$1.34	44d	1	0.77mi
5005 Warwicke Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	0.78mi
1213 Waters Dairy Rd Temple, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,322	$1.46	14d	21	0.78mi
3506 S 5th St Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,885	$1.79	14d	23	0.78mi
911 Ferrara Cir Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	14d	1	0.80mi
Karey Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,395	$0.96	24d	1	0.81mi
615B Kacie Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,295	$1.00	24d	1	0.82mi
516 Karey Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	988	$2,100	$2.13	44d	1	0.82mi
615 Kacie Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,295	$1.00	24d	1	0.82mi
602 Kacie Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,395	$1.04	14d	1	0.82mi
4706 Hartrick Bluff Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,550	$1.23	44d	1	0.82mi
614 Paseo del Plata Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.83mi
802 Hartrick Cir Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,645	$1.18	44d	1	0.84mi
504 Karey Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,275	$0.97	44d	1	0.84mi
4403 Brutus Ln Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,400	$1.06	24d	1	0.86mi
3514 Fenway Cir Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	0.86mi
720 Azalea Dr Temple, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,375	$1.76	14d	10	0.86mi
2705 San Jacinto Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,495	$1.14	44d	1	0.88mi
2709 San Jacinto Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,550	$1.27	24d	1	0.88mi
505 Kacie Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	0.89mi
4521 Brutus Ln Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,395	$1.03	44d	1	0.90mi
4802 Silver Wood Ct Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,550	$1.24	24d	1	0.92mi
4615 Brutus Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,295	$0.96	14d	1	0.92mi
3301 East Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1457	$3,900	$2.68	44d	1	0.95mi
2510 S 31st St Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,640	$1.66	14d	26	0.98mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $174,900 905-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $185,000 Active 905-char remark
17. 1990-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$4,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$994
• After-tax cash flow: $-215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $174,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $185,000 CTXMLS
• 1990-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,251 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.