7159 State Road 21 · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1984 0.58 ac lot Est $196k · 10% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath two-story home nestled on a beautiful small private lake, offering peaceful waterfront living with endless potential. This light-filled home features tons of natural light throughout and a custom black metal spiral staircase connecting the two levels, adding unique character and architectural charm. Enjoy the outdoors from the downstairs concrete patio overlooking the water or relax on the screened-in porch upstairs, perfect for morning coffee or evening sunsets. Situated on half an acre with a fully fenced backyard, the property provides plenty of space for outdoor living, pets, or gardening. Conveniently located just minutes from the heart of Keystone Heights, and only about a 30-minute drive to Gainesville or Middleburg, this home offers the perfect balance of quiet lakefront living and easy access to nearby towns. Main "top" floor is 916 sqft w/ 2 bed, 1 bath and remodeled kitchen, updated appliances and granite counter top. The 2nd "bottom" floor is a 600 sqft space with a half bath that was completely remodeled into a home office and family den but would also make a beautiful master bedroom overlooking the lake. This scenic fixer-upper is ready for your vision and updates - an incredible opportunity to create a stunning lakeside retreat!

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Private lake
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE
• DOWNSTAIRS CONCRETE PATIO
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• REMODELED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keystone Heights Elementary (math 77% / reading 70%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 803 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $215k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,835 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,761
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6229 Little Lake Geneva Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+10%)	19mo	$159,000	$159	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,043
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-56,861
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,507/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $181,335

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-130	+0% $-191	+5% $-251	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-306	-5% $-248	+0% $-191	+5% $-133	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-136	base $-191	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $239,000 Active
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $215,000 Active 1312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1312 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath two-story home nestled on a beautiful small private lake, offering peaceful waterfront living with endless potential. This light-filled home features tons of natural light throughout and a custom black metal spiral staircase connecting the two levels, adding unique character and architectural charm. Enjoy the outdoors from the downstairs concrete patio overlooking the water or relax on the screened-in porch upstairs, perfect for morning coffee or evening sunsets. Situated on half an acre with a fully fenced backyard, the property provides plenty of space for outdoor living, pets, or gardening. Conveniently located just minutes from the heart of Keystone Heights, and only about a 30-minute drive to Gainesville or Middleburg, this home offers the perfect balance of quiet lakefront living and easy access to nearby towns. Main "top" floor is 916 sqft w/ 2 bed, 1 bath and remodeled kitchen, updated appliances and granite counter top. The 2nd "bottom" floor is a 600 sqft space with a half bath that was completely remodeled into a home office and family den but would also make a beautiful master bedroom overlooking the lake. This scenic fixer-upper is ready for your vision and updates - an incredible opportunity to create a stunning lakeside retreat!

18. 2020-08-18
    status Pending
19. 2020-07-13
    historical Active - Contingent
20. 2020-07-10
    listed $128,900 Active
21. 2004-06-08
    soldstatus $92,000
22. 2004-06-03
    historical
23. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $92,000
24. 2004-04-21
    listed $99,500
25. 2003-09-03
    historical
26. 2003-03-03
    listed $89,000
27. 2000-07-27
    soldstatus $68,500
28. 2000-07-27
    soldstatus $68,500
29. 1994-07-20
    soldstatus $53,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,507 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,507
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,483
• After-tax cash flow: $-804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+345.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $239,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $215,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-08-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-07-13 Contingent — realMLS
• 2020-07-10 Listed $128,900 realMLS
• 2004-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-05-28 Sold (MLS) $92,000 realMLS
• 2004-04-21 Listed $99,500 realMLS
• 2003-09-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2003-03-03 Listed $89,000 realMLS
• 2000-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2000-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 1994-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $53,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,507 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.