377 Lucia Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$128,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $128,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $166,229.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,229
• List price: $128,990
• Delta: -22.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
382 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	2mo	$156,990	$152	95
350 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	0mo	$133,990	$128	93
401 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	2mo	$170,990	$163	92
385 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+2%)	2mo	$170,991	$163	92
338 Lucia Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+17%)	0mo	$168,990	$140	71
365 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+17%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	70
370 Lucia Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+15%)	0mo	$163,990	$138	70
378 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+17%)	3mo	$174,990	$145	69
381 Lucia Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+17%)	3mo	$172,990	$143	69
382 Road 5704	0.92mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+11%)	8mo	$185,000	$162	40
1023 Road 5606	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+16%)	2mo	$199,000	$166	38
639 Road 5704	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+16%)	7mo	$210,000	$175	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-16,488
• Equity at exit: $24,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,018
• Equity at exit: $14,372

Cash invested: $46,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $153,990 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +19.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$872
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$208 /mo · $2,493/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $166,229

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $195	+0% $137	+5% $80	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $73	+0% $137	+5% $202	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $180	base $137	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,557
• Closing costs: $4,987
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Road 5819 Unit NA Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	0d	1	0.40mi
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	32d	1	0.69mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	64d	1	0.91mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CH&P Management, LLCAnnual association fee of $120Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)One-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric oven and electric rangeGas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (9 x 13)Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 9 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub-shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $128,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $128,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $128,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $128,990 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $128,990 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $128,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $128,990 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $133,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $133,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $133,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $133,990 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $133,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $133,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $133,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $133,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $133,990 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $133,990 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $133,990 Active 15 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $133,990 Active 14 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $133,990 Active 13 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $133,990 Active 12 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $133,990 Active 11 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $133,990 Active 10 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $133,990 Active 9 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $133,990 Active 8 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $133,990 Active 6 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $133,990 Active 5 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $133,990 Active 4 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $133,990 Active 3 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $133,990 Active 2 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    remarks 634-char remark
32. 2026-07-02
    days on marketlisting id $133,990 Active 1 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on marketlisting id $133,990 Active 26 DOM
34. 2026-07-01
    days on market $133,990 Active 27 DOM
35. 2026-06-30
    days on market $133,990 Active 26 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $133,990 Active 25 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $133,990 Active 24 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $133,990 Active 23 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $133,990 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $133,990 Active 20 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $133,990 Active 18 DOM
42. 2026-06-21
    days on market $133,990 Active 17 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $133,990 Active 14 DOM

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

44. 2026-06-17
    price $133,990 Active 13 DOM
45. 2026-06-17
    days on market $150,990 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-16
    days on market $150,990 Active 12 DOM
47. 2026-06-15
    days on market $150,990 Active 11 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    days on market $150,990 Active 9 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,990 Active 5 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,990 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,311
• − Property taxes: −$2,493
• − Insurance: −$831
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $1,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious floor plan. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior and interior touch-ups to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pine Burr El Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CH&P Management, LLCAnnual association fee of $120Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)One-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric oven and electric rangeGas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (9 x 13)Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 9 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub-shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Listed $133,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $133,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $133,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $150,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $150,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $156,990 HARMLS