19817 Lakeview Ave · Warsaw, MO 65355

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1968 5,000 sqft lot $160/sqft · 11% below area Est $214k · 11% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Lake of the Ozarks home—offering comfortable living, spacious design, and community lake access, all just minutes from shopping and dining in Warsaw, MO. Step inside to an oversized living room with great flow—perfect for gatherings and everyday comfort. The functional layout features a Hollywood bath, kitchen pantry, and stacked washer and dryer, plus a bonus room with indoor/outdoor access—ideal for storage, fisherman's room, or finish to fit your needs. Central air keeps the home cool and comfortable after a day at the lake. Out back, enjoy the sights and sounds of nature with a peaceful wooded backdrop. The backyard and spacio

Key facts

• Wooded backdrop
• Kitchen pantry
• Bonus room

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAKE ACCESS
• KITCHEN PANTRY
• BONUS ROOM
• CENTRAL AIR
• WOODED BACKDROP
• SPACIOUS DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lake: Lake Ozarks; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100 (about 0.1148 acres)
• Financial info: No investor or cash-flow details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (about $16.67/month); Subdivision: Ozark N Shores

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Shared well; Septic tank; Electric service with 220 volts
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built area above grade: 1,186 (finished)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Sliding doors; Lake privileges; Asphalt road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher not listed (disposal present); Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; No flooring specified for some areas
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans; Forced air heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Pantry; Ceiling fans; Window coverings and drapes; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer present; 220-volt hookup in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $133,678 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,090
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29144 Fairchild St	0.68mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,018 (-14%)	10mo	$210,000	$206	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $31,312
• Equity at exit: $112,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $107,624
• Equity at exit: $199,228

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $150,353

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $189,900 Active 1491-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$6,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $189,900 WCAR