1202 Jefferson City Rd · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$119,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

0.33 ac lot Est $170k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large living room
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• QUIET LOT
• VINYL SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• NEW DECK
• UPDATED SEPTIC
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, Rural Development, and in-house financing
• HOA & community: Community amenities include tennis courts, playground, clubhouse, picnic area, marina, golf course, and fitness/bike trails

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Septic system; Public water; Electric provided by cooperative; Wireless internet available
• Home design: Metal/Vinyl siding exterior; Crawl space foundation; Metal roof
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal/Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel road access; Sloped lot; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove / electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom about 11'1" x 18'7"; Bedroom 2 about 13'11" x 13'7"; Bedroom 3 about 9'7" x 11'3"
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections (dryer electric); Electric water heater; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Walk-in shower; Wired for high-speed internet; Formica kitchen countertops; Sheetrock walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (utility room ~7'3" x 6'9")

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $119k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 Crusoe Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+12%)	8mo	$190,000	$118	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $159
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $25,054
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $340	+0% $306	+5% $272	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $255	+0% $306	+5% $357	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $336	base $306	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Church St Horseshoe Bend, AR	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	44d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $119,000 New Listing
18. 2018-03-07
    soldstatus $27,000 Sold 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

19. 2018-03-07
    soldstatus $27,000

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

20. 2018-02-14
    status Under Contract 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

21. 2017-09-12
    price $34,500 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

22. 2017-06-30
    status Back on Market 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

23. 2017-06-23
    status Under Contract 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

24. 2017-06-01
    price $39,500 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

25. 2016-12-08
    listed $42,500 New Listing 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    This property has been remodeled in 2016 with a new metal roof and flooring and will be completed soon and move in ready. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has 1440 sqft of living space and the only house on the street. Close to Crown Lake for boating and fishing. Minutes to Turkey Mt Golf Course. Woods all around for quiet atmosphere.

26. 2009-06-29
    soldstatus $49,000
27. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus $34,951
28. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$192/yr (+$16/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+526.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $119,000 CARMLS
• 2018-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-07 Sold (MLS) $27,000 CARMLS
• 2018-02-14 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Price Changed $34,500 CARMLS
• 2017-06-30 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-06-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Price Changed $39,500 CARMLS
• 2016-12-08 Listed $42,500 CARMLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $34,951 Public Records
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.