4611 Oasis · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$249,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1949 1.80 ac lot $229/sqft · 17% below area Est $302k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduced!! Welcome to 4611 Oasis, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home set on a fully fenced 1.8-acre lot. Recently painted throughout, the home features a brand new kitchen with new cabinets and quartz countertops. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system for efficient, personalized comfort. A dedicated laundry room includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a detached two-car garage. This property has the potential to convert a detached garage to an ADU or just add an ADU on the existing concrete pad. The opportunities are endless.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Mini-split system
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twentynine Palms Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 548 students, 47% FRL); Twentynine Palms Junior High (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #236 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 413 students, 63% FRL); Twentynine Palms High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 729 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 751 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $250k implies a 443% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,236 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,991
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -17.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4515 Sierra Way	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+6%)	10mo	$125,000	$109	74
73627 Raymond Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	978 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$256	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,746
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,973
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 751
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $231,080

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-36	+0% $-107	+5% $-177	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-177	+0% $-107	+5% $-36	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-43	base $-107	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73432 Friendy Ln Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.64mi
5170 Split Rock Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.73mi
5254 Verenda Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	6d	1	0.82mi
72949 Siesta Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,350	$1.70	4d	1	1.28mi
73482 Desert Trail Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,275	$1.01	45d	1	1.44mi
73477 Desert Trail Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,200	$1.59	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $250,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Price reduced!! Welcome to 4611 Oasis, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home set on a fully fenced 1.8-acre lot. Recently painted throughout, the home features a brand new kitchen with new cabinets and quartz countertops. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system for efficient, personalized comfort. A dedicated laundry room includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a detached two-car garage. This property has the potential to convert a detached garage to an ADU or just add an ADU on the existing concrete pad. The opportunities are endless.

17. 2026-04-21
    price $285,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Price reduced!! Welcome to 4611 Oasis, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home set on a fully fenced 1.8-acre lot. Recently painted throughout, the home features a brand new kitchen with new cabinets and quartz countertops. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system for efficient, personalized comfort. A dedicated laundry room includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a detached two-car garage. This property has the potential to convert a detached garage to an ADU or just add an ADU on the existing concrete pad. The opportunities are endless.

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $297,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Price reduced!! Welcome to 4611 Oasis, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home set on a fully fenced 1.8-acre lot. Recently painted throughout, the home features a brand new kitchen with new cabinets and quartz countertops. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system for efficient, personalized comfort. A dedicated laundry room includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a detached two-car garage. This property has the potential to convert a detached garage to an ADU or just add an ADU on the existing concrete pad. The opportunities are endless.

19. 2012-05-25
    soldstatus $46,000 Closed 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED!!! Great Opportunity to own this Price Reduced HUD home on approximately 1.8 acres fully fenced lot. The main property has 2 bedrooms 1 bath with a lovely covered patio to watch the sunset. The garage has a single space parking area and an additional room, great for a workshop or craft room. Per County records property is 1667 SQ. FT. State law requires Carbon Monoxide detectors be installed for properties having combustible fuel heaters/furnaces, fireplaces, hot water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking appliances, or an attached garage, but seller (HUD) is exempt from this requirement as a Federal Entity, Property is connected to septic and propane systems, Recommend HVAC and plumbing inspections. Repairs: Missing floor covers. , Damaged eaves. , Repair water leak. , Missing thermostat. , Defective paint. .

20. 2012-04-07
    status Pending 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED!!! Great Opportunity to own this Price Reduced HUD home on approximately 1.8 acres fully fenced lot. The main property has 2 bedrooms 1 bath with a lovely covered patio to watch the sunset. The garage has a single space parking area and an additional room, great for a workshop or craft room. Per County records property is 1667 SQ. FT. State law requires Carbon Monoxide detectors be installed for properties having combustible fuel heaters/furnaces, fireplaces, hot water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking appliances, or an attached garage, but seller (HUD) is exempt from this requirement as a Federal Entity, Property is connected to septic and propane systems, Recommend HVAC and plumbing inspections. Repairs: Missing floor covers. , Damaged eaves. , Repair water leak. , Missing thermostat. , Defective paint. .

21. 2012-03-22
    price $45,600 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED!!! Great Opportunity to own this Price Reduced HUD home on approximately 1.8 acres fully fenced lot. The main property has 2 bedrooms 1 bath with a lovely covered patio to watch the sunset. The garage has a single space parking area and an additional room, great for a workshop or craft room. Per County records property is 1667 SQ. FT. State law requires Carbon Monoxide detectors be installed for properties having combustible fuel heaters/furnaces, fireplaces, hot water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking appliances, or an attached garage, but seller (HUD) is exempt from this requirement as a Federal Entity, Property is connected to septic and propane systems, Recommend HVAC and plumbing inspections. Repairs: Missing floor covers. , Damaged eaves. , Repair water leak. , Missing thermostat. , Defective paint. .

22. 2012-02-15
    price $52,800 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED!!! Great Opportunity to own this Price Reduced HUD home on approximately 1.8 acres fully fenced lot. The main property has 2 bedrooms 1 bath with a lovely covered patio to watch the sunset. The garage has a single space parking area and an additional room, great for a workshop or craft room. Per County records property is 1667 SQ. FT. State law requires Carbon Monoxide detectors be installed for properties having combustible fuel heaters/furnaces, fireplaces, hot water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking appliances, or an attached garage, but seller (HUD) is exempt from this requirement as a Federal Entity, Property is connected to septic and propane systems, Recommend HVAC and plumbing inspections. Repairs: Missing floor covers. , Damaged eaves. , Repair water leak. , Missing thermostat. , Defective paint. .

23. 2012-01-14
    listed $60,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED!!! Great Opportunity to own this Price Reduced HUD home on approximately 1.8 acres fully fenced lot. The main property has 2 bedrooms 1 bath with a lovely covered patio to watch the sunset. The garage has a single space parking area and an additional room, great for a workshop or craft room. Per County records property is 1667 SQ. FT. State law requires Carbon Monoxide detectors be installed for properties having combustible fuel heaters/furnaces, fireplaces, hot water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking appliances, or an attached garage, but seller (HUD) is exempt from this requirement as a Federal Entity, Property is connected to septic and propane systems, Recommend HVAC and plumbing inspections. Repairs: Missing floor covers. , Damaged eaves. , Repair water leak. , Missing thermostat. , Defective paint. .

24. 2008-10-29
    soldstatus $124,000
25. 1985-01-15
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 58.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twentynine Palms, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+468.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $297,000 CRMLS
• 2012-05-25 Sold (MLS) $46,000 GPSMLS
• 2012-04-07 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2012-03-22 Price Changed $45,600 GPSMLS
• 2012-02-15 Price Changed $52,800 GPSMLS
• 2012-01-14 Listed $60,000 GPSMLS
• 2008-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1985-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.