4895 Bay St NE #101 · St. Petersburg, FL 33703

$128,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 $758/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Florida living at it's best, with a price tag to match!! Please come and see this stylish and spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath ground floor condo that has been completely remodeled with such detail. What a beauty! Winston Park is a very active and well maintained 55 plus community conveniently located close to bus lines, churches, shopping and downtown.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Ground floor
• End unit

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• GROUND FLOOR
• END UNIT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WEEDON ISLAND PRESERVE
• DOWNTOWN ST PETERSBURG

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total monthly condo/association fees shown as $758
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association-managed by Resource Property Management; Monthly condo fee of $758; Annual association fees total $9,096; Association approval required; Association fee includes cable TV, trash, and water; Community pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, sidewalks, community mailbox; Buyer approval required; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Covered parking; Guest parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Faces north; Unit on first floor
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as part of a larger building (address includes building number 4895)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (35.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,129 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-37,970
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-58,120
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33703

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,960/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$758
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $83,129

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-182	-5% $-218	+0% $-254	+5% $-290	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-345	+0% $-254	+5% $-163	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-221	base $-254	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4880 Locust St NE St Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,375	$1.64	25d	3	0.03mi
4880 Locust St NE St Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.5–2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	5d	2	0.03mi
4920 Locust St NE St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,825	$1.76	25d	1	0.05mi
4843 Napoli Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$3,200	$2.64	4d	1	0.18mi
4681 1st St NE #209 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,250	$2.01	25d	1	0.25mi
617 Segovia Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1420	$2,950	$2.08	25d	1	0.26mi
135 48th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$2,495	$3.12	25d	1	0.28mi
4651 1st St NE #306 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,900	$2.59	5d	1	0.28mi
120 47th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,999	$2.19	3d	8	0.29mi
363 48th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	25d	1	0.42mi
411 42nd Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,500	$2.56	18d	1	0.44mi
5516 Pine Cir NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1205	$2,500	$2.07	5d	1	0.45mi
4200 1st St NE Unit 2 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	25d	1	0.50mi
233 41st Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$2,295	$2.49	5d	1	0.51mi
375 54th Ter N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$3,323	$3.44	2d	13	0.52mi
440 50th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$2,100	$2.55	25d	1	0.54mi
131 41st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	933	$2,100	$2.25	4d	2	0.56mi
101 40th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$2,700	$2.51	4d	1	0.60mi
324 42nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	5d	1	0.60mi
426 Palm Ave N Unit 9 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	25d	1	0.63mi
550 50th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	765	$1,700	$2.22	8d	2	0.64mi
628 51st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,800	$1.89	4d	1	0.66mi
547 46th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	837	$2,000	$2.39	8d	1	0.68mi
617 52nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1481	$3,250	$2.19	5d	1	0.68mi
5185 6th Way N St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$3,150	$2.13	5d	1	0.69mi
517 Hampton Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$2,950	$3.29	25d	1	0.70mi
400 38th Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$5,400	$4.63	25d	1	0.73mi
613 44th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1124	$2,250	$2.00	5d	1	0.73mi
5519 Commonwealth Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	852	$2,900	$3.40	5d	1	0.74mi
220 Southeast Blvd N St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,000	$2.35	17d	1	0.79mi
6360 1st St N #103 Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	755	$1,499	$1.99	5d	1	0.93mi
209 NE Lincoln Cir N St Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.5	855	$1,498	$1.75	25d	2	0.99mi
4628 Dr Martin Luther King Jr St N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,950	$2.08	25d	1	1.00mi
646 38th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	978	$2,400	$2.45	4d	1	1.01mi
5210 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior St N St. Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1318	$3,600	$2.73	14d	1	1.02mi
209 NW Jefferson Cir N Unit JEFFERSON209-15 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$1,275	$1.72	3d	1	1.03mi
209 NW Jefferson Cir N Unit 15 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$1,275	$1.72	25d	1	1.03mi
5801 Magnolia St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$2,250	$1.96	5d	1	1.04mi
252 33rd Ave N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,995	$2.85	18d	1	1.10mi
510 34th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,200	$2.40	5d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $758 · $9,096/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $128,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,960
• − Insurance: −$5,758
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$9,096
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Petersburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Petersburg, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 249,151
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,264
• Household income: $95,224
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -617.95%
• Current HPI: 352.2886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+184.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-15 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-07 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,960 · +372.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.