5306 Cinnamon Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$249,349

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 4,400 sqft lot $134/sqft · 41% below area Est $422k · 41% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($447/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,431 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,266
• List price: $249,349
• Delta: -40.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10650 County Road 491	0.61mi	4/3.0	1,834 (-2%)	3mo	$380,000	$207	62
795 Jupe Way	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	2mo	$312,889	$178	58
510 Weller Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,139 (+15%)	14mo	$394,990	$185	58
722 Jupe Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	2mo	$299,000	$171	55
664 Jupe Way	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	16mo	$341,547	$195	55
808 Sicily Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,674 (-10%)	13mo	$391,949	$234	48
677 Jupe Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,675 (-10%)	9mo	$317,630	$190	43
10405 County Road 491	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (+14%)	19mo	$475,000	$224	38
1216 Desert Willow Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	24mo	$323,999	$202	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,717
• Equity at exit: $37,179

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,694
• Equity at exit: $21,559

Cash invested: $69,818 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,740/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $249,349

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $123	+0% $37	+5% $-49	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-54	+0% $37	+5% $128	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $101	base $37	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,337
• Closing costs: $7,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 Vining DR Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1510	$2,500	$1.66	44d	1	0.03mi
750 Jupe Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,300	$0.92	44d	1	0.68mi
1567 Dukeswood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2429	$2,575	$1.06	18d	1	0.69mi
663 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,100	$0.95	44d	1	0.78mi
663 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,250	$1.02	25d	1	0.78mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	13d	1	0.79mi
622 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,000	$1.28	44d	1	0.82mi
149 Princeton Xrds Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,914	$1.95	2d	23	0.88mi
353 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	0.94mi
461 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$1,750	$1.00	25d	1	0.94mi
2304 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,125	$1.06	18d	1	0.97mi
200 Lake Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2586	$2,300	$0.89	2d	1	1.00mi
205 Lake Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,195	$1.08	44d	1	1.01mi
346 Boroughbridge Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2500	$1,975	$0.79	44d	1	1.04mi
264 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	1.05mi
291 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	44d	1	1.06mi
1823 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,950	$1.08	8d	1	1.08mi
219 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	17d	1	1.10mi
248 Enchanted Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$1,999	$1.00	44d	1	1.12mi
281 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,895	$1.05	13d	1	1.12mi
280 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	5d	1	1.13mi
1917 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,045	$1.11	44d	1	1.13mi
304 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	44d	1	1.14mi
263 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	44d	1	1.14mi
265 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,195	$1.01	44d	1	1.15mi
250 N Boorman Ln Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,619	$4.93	2d	1	1.16mi
306 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,995	$1.10	44d	1	1.20mi
311 Clear Springs St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2577	$2,245	$0.87	44d	1	1.21mi
1717 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1924	$1,900	$0.99	19d	1	1.21mi
1715 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,099	$1.05	44d	1	1.21mi
613 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,025	$1.26	3d	1	1.22mi
605 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,925	$1.23	16d	1	1.23mi
1707 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,095	$1.16	5d	1	1.23mi
313 Sweet Pea Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	3d	1	1.26mi
305 Turquoise Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,850	$1.02	13d	1	1.28mi
882 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,250	$1.23	22d	1	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	44d	23	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,733	$1.80	2d	9	1.29mi
858 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$2,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.29mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	3d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   $22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $249,349 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   $22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-05
   status Active 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   $22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-03-08
   status Pending 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   $22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-04
   listed $264,999 Active 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   $22,650 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,967
• − Property taxes: −$3,740
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,254
• Taxable loss: −$3,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$888
• After-tax cash flow: $1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the exterior siding, roof, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding is visibly weathered and discolored, indicating significant damage.
• Major roof — The roof appears to have missing shingles or significant damage, which is not visible in the photo but is implied by the overall condition of the home.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, which detracts from the curb appeal of the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Painting the exterior can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value.
• Resale repair roof — Repairing the roof can address a major issue and improve the home's overall condition.
• Both landscape — Landscape improvements can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Resale paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can freshen up the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale repair exterior siding — Repairing the exterior siding can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Rental repair HVAC/mechanicals — Repairing HVAC/mechanicals can improve the home's comfort and attract renters.
• Resale repair kitchen/bath — Repairing the kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair flooring — Repairing flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair interior walls/paint — Repairing interior walls and painting can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair systems — Repairing systems can improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The siding is visibly weathered and discolored, indicating significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to have missing shingles or significant damage, which is not visible in the photo but is implied by the overall condition of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, which detracts from the curb appeal of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — Painting the exterior can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale repair roof — Repairing the roof can address a major issue and improve the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both landscape — Landscape improvements can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can freshen up the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale repair exterior siding — Repairing the exterior siding can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental repair HVAC/mechanicals — Repairing HVAC/mechanicals can improve the home's comfort and attract renters. ↑
• Resale repair kitchen/bath — Repairing the kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair flooring — Repairing flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair interior walls/paint — Repairing interior walls and painting can improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair systems — Repairing systems can improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $249,349 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $264,999 NTREIS