631 Duke Ct · Piney Green, NC 28546

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1978 0.48 ac lot Est $298k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 1750 square foot, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home situated on a half acre lot is a must see! Entering through the door, you'll find a bright open floor plan. The natural light flows through. Stainless steel appliances throughout the kitchen with lots of cabinet space. This home is located just outside Jacksonville city limits. The backyard is fully fenced around. This beautiful home won't last long! Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Cul-de-sac
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• RECENTLY REPLACED KITCHEN
• RECENTLY REPLACED COUNTERTOPS
• RECENTLY REPLACED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Montclair Park

Exterior

• Parking: On-site paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Water service available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level 1
• Construction: Brick veneer, vinyl siding, and frame construction
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing around back yard; Shingle roof; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved road frontage; Has a view; Accessible full bathroom

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Piney Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#524 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morton Elementary (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #403 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 682 students, 58% FRL); Hunters Creek Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 922 students, 55% FRL); White Oak High (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #265 of 535 statewide, top 50%, 1,207 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,077 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Walnut Creek Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-1%)	2mo	$250,000	$145	82
306 Walnut Creek Ct	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	4mo	$259,900	$147	81
307 Walnut Creek Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,724 (-1%)	6mo	$250,000	$145	78
113 Princeton Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-5%)	2mo	$245,000	$148	72
125 Cobblestone Trl	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+9%)	3mo	$325,000	$171	64
106 Cobalt Stream Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-8%)	3mo	$281,500	$176	55
216 Brookstone Way	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,947 (+12%)	3mo	$300,000	$154	53
508 Pebble Spruce Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (-6%)	7mo	$287,000	$174	53
303 Burberry Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,867 (+7%)	1mo	$359,900	$193	48
111 Barnhouse Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,682 (-4%)	8mo	$307,500	$183	48
105 Barnhouse Rd	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,647 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$197	47
5 Sheffield Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,541 (-12%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-25,333
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,608
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28546

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $173	+0% $113	+5% $54	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $44	+0% $113	+5% $183	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $167	base $113	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 White Stone Ct Jacksonville, NC	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,150	$1.47	22d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   listed $210,000 Active
5. 2022-03-04
   soldstatus $206,000 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   This spacious 1750 square foot, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home situated on a half acre lot is a must see! Entering through the door, you'll find a bright open floor plan. The natural light flows through. Stainless steel appliances throughout the kitchen with lots of cabinet space. This home is located just outside Jacksonville city limits. The backyard is fully fenced around. This beautiful home won't last long! Schedule your showing today.

6. 2022-03-04
   soldstatus $206,000

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   This spacious 1750 square foot, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home situated on a half acre lot is a must see! Entering through the door, you'll find a bright open floor plan. The natural light flows through. Stainless steel appliances throughout the kitchen with lots of cabinet space. This home is located just outside Jacksonville city limits. The backyard is fully fenced around. This beautiful home won't last long! Schedule your showing today.

7. 2022-01-25
   listed $197,900 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   This spacious 1750 square foot, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home situated on a half acre lot is a must see! Entering through the door, you'll find a bright open floor plan. The natural light flows through. Stainless steel appliances throughout the kitchen with lots of cabinet space. This home is located just outside Jacksonville city limits. The backyard is fully fenced around. This beautiful home won't last long! Schedule your showing today.

8. 2019-01-23
   soldstatus $144,500 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Imagine living in this magnificent home, newly renovated 'top to bottom' on a quiet cul de sac. Enjoy nearly +1750sf of bright & airy living space with 4 bedrooms PLUS family room/den, & 2 FULL baths. Gather for meals in your BRAND NEW high-end kitchen w an abundance of cabinetry & deluxe stainless appliances. Bathe in luxury w 2 all new tiled baths. Beautiful, private backyard overlooking wooded fields. Low Maintenance brick & vinyl exterior with ALL NEW; HVAC, roof, windows & vinyl siding/soffits. Home also features ALL NEW laminate & tile floors, designer paint, fixtures & the list goes on! Professionally renovated by HomeVestors. Close to shopping & very close to base. This high-end renovator recently had a home featured on HGTV's 'Property Virgins'. Your family dreams begin here!

9. 2018-12-03
   listed $149,800 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Imagine living in this magnificent home, newly renovated 'top to bottom' on a quiet cul de sac. Enjoy nearly +1750sf of bright & airy living space with 4 bedrooms PLUS family room/den, & 2 FULL baths. Gather for meals in your BRAND NEW high-end kitchen w an abundance of cabinetry & deluxe stainless appliances. Bathe in luxury w 2 all new tiled baths. Beautiful, private backyard overlooking wooded fields. Low Maintenance brick & vinyl exterior with ALL NEW; HVAC, roof, windows & vinyl siding/soffits. Home also features ALL NEW laminate & tile floors, designer paint, fixtures & the list goes on! Professionally renovated by HomeVestors. Close to shopping & very close to base. This high-end renovator recently had a home featured on HGTV's 'Property Virgins'. Your family dreams begin here!

10. 1978-12-08
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$562/yr (+$47/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$536
• After-tax cash flow: $1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Piney Green

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #19401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney Green, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $63,561
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1830.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.75%
• Current HPI: 211.9993
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+452.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $210,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) $206,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-01-25 Listed $197,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-01-23 Sold (MLS) $144,500 Hive MLS
• 2018-12-03 Listed $149,800 Hive MLS
• 1978-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.