2691 Ridge Rd · Hayes, MI 48625

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

1.15 ac lot $126/sqft · 15% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set back off the road in a peaceful, private setting THAT NOW OFFERS 2 LOTS giving you, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a quiet Up North feel with added space to enjoy. The older single-wide trailer features a full-length addition, creating a more open and comfortable layout. A newer furnace with central air adds to the home’s efficiency and year-round comfort. Outside, you’ll find an extra-large 14x32 shed—perfect for storing all your outdoor gear and trail toys. Enjoy peek-a-boo views of Sutherland Lake, with the public boat launch just down the road for easy access to the water. A great spot to relax, unwind, and take in everything Northern Michigan has to offer.

Key facts

• Full-length addition
• Newer furnace
• Private setting

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• FULL-LENGTH ADDITION
• NEWER FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• EXTRA-LARGE SHED
• PEEK-A-BOO VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned recreational; Approximately 1.15 acres; Property Type: Residential; Site in Wild Life Park 1st Add subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Road frontage (100')
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Private well water; Septic system; Propane heating (LP/Propane) with leased propane tank; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (manufactured before 1976); One-story
• Construction: Wood construction; Crawl and slab foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Shed; Lake view; Deep, large and treed lot with unpaved surfaces; Gravel road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (approx. 11 x 15); Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (approx. 10 x 11; 8 x 12; W=17)
• Flooring: Wood basement type noted
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level (approx. 7 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C
• Interior features: Bay window; Breezeway; Den/Study/Library; Entry; Family room; Living room; Unfinished room
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($883 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert M Larson Elementary School (606 students, 85% FRL); Harrison Middle School (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 282 students, 81% FRL); Harrison Community High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 341 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $85k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,434
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -52.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-4,771
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,422
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $903/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $704

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $165	+0% $141	+5% $117	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $107	+0% $141	+5% $176	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $163	base $141	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $75,000 Active 661-char remark
19. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus $39,900
20. 2019-07-20
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$903
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$848
• − Management: −$848
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hayes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+89.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 2019-07-20 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $903 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.