1307 Monroe Ave · Front Royal, VA 22630

$320,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2006 4,792 sqft lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $306k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK TO THE MARKET! PRICE IMPROVEMENT. Welcome to 1307 Monroe Avenue in Front Royal. This beautifully renovated home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and is completely move-in ready. Recent upgrades include fresh paint throughout, brand-new flooring, appliances recently replaced. The functional and inviting layout is perfect for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located in town with easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and commuter routes, while still nestled in a quiet neighborhood. An ideal opportunity for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or investors. Don’t miss this one! Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $320k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,254 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,641
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
624 W 13th St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (+1%)	14mo	$310,000	$231	79
511 W 13th St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	3mo	$395,000	$274	73
505 W 13th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+7%)	7mo	$280,000	$197	70
368 W 9th St	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$300,000	$208	66
132 W 12th St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-6%)	10mo	$280,000	$223	61
104 W 12th St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	1mo	$281,000	$225	60
812 Virginia Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,266 (-5%)	5mo	$325,000	$257	54
421 W 14th St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-10%)	17mo	$348,050	$290	51
814 Virginia Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-5%)	10mo	$320,000	$253	48
27 12th W	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	2mo	$415,000	$360	46
1101 Virginia Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-11%)	11mo	$351,101	$296	42
13 W 12th St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-12%)	13mo	$195,000	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-42,859
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $14,799
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,440

Max offer price $310,556

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
352 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	43d	1	0.33mi
350 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	43d	1	0.33mi
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	11d	1	0.65mi
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.65mi
852 Morgan Pl Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	20d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   status $320,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   status $320,000 Pending 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $320,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $320,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-05-03
    historical
12. 2026-05-03
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-04
    price $329,900
14. 2026-01-29
    listed $339,000 Active
15. 2026-01-27
    historical
16. 2016-10-31
    historical
17. 2016-10-31
    historical Withdrawn
18. 2016-09-26
    status Active
19. 2016-09-17
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
20. 2016-09-05
    status Active
21. 2016-08-28
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
22. 2016-08-12
    status Active
23. 2016-07-29
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
24. 2016-06-27
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
25. 2016-06-16
    listed Active
26. 2016-06-16
    listed $159,900
27. 2012-10-24
    soldstatus $97,000 Sold
28. 2012-10-24
    soldstatus $97,000
29. 2012-09-20
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
30. 2012-09-20
    historical
31. 2012-09-06
    listed $97,000 Active
32. 2012-09-06
    listed $97,000
33. 2008-11-01
    historical
34. 2008-06-30
    listed
35. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus $240,000
36. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus $240,000
37. 2006-05-23
    historical
38. 2006-05-19
    listed $234,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,228/yr (+$102/mo · 88.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Front Royal, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+41.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $329,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $339,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-26 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-09-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-09-05 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-08-28 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-08-12 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-07-29 Contingent — MRIS
• 2016-06-27 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-06-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-06-16 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-24 Sold (MLS) $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-24 Sold (MLS) $97,000 MRIS
• 2012-09-20 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-09-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-09-06 Listed $97,000 MRIS
• 2012-09-06 Listed $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-11-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-06-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-27 Sold (MLS) $240,000 MRIS
• 2006-05-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-19 Listed $234,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.