3530 Lansing Loop #202 · Estero, FL 33928

$424,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · Condo public records · 261 Days on market

Built 2007 $665/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

C. 13834 - Designer Finishes, Big Lake View, Upgrades, 2 Car Garage and Close to some of the best shopping and restaurants in the area. Wide open floor plan, large outdoor living area, one of a kind finishes and perfect location within the neighborhood. The gated community features a sun lovers pool, clubhouse and workout facility. Located within minutes to FGCU and RSW Airport. This residence has been gently occupied and pride of ownership is clearly apparent. Expect to be impressed.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Roman soaking tub
• Oversized lanai

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• OVERSIZED LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED ENSUITE BATH
• ROMAN SOAKING TUB
• FRAMELESS GLASS SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision/section details within Meadows of Estero
• Financial info: Quarterly condo fee noted (listed as $1,996; frequency: quarterly); Total annual recurring fees listed
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Quarterly condo fee; HOA covers cable, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, exterior pest control, security, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, streetlights, and underground utilities; Community is gated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Manual shutters
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1-3) carriage/coach style; Zero lot line; Rear exposure facing north; Located in Meadows of Estero development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Built in 2007; Built on a foundation (standard for concrete block)
• Exterior features: Lake view; Water display; Reclaimed irrigation; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Foyer; Laundry tub; Tray ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry tub; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (44.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $124k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,104 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.89%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-146,345
• Equity at exit: $63,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.10×
• Total profit: $-249,568
• Equity at exit: $36,738

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax from tax record: −$469 /mo · $5,624/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$665
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,480

Max offer price $234,104

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,225
• Closing costs: $12,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3610 Lansing Loop #103 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,800	$1.46	3d	1	0.13mi
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #102 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,900	$1.51	23d	1	0.24mi
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2878	$2,800	$0.97	23d	1	0.24mi
22361 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1942	$4,000	$2.06	23d	1	0.62mi
22632 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,000	$1.71	23d	1	0.84mi
22033 Natures Cove Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	2650	$10,000	$3.77	23d	1	1.20mi
21670 Red Latan Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2041	$3,500	$1.71	23d	1	1.22mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #101 Estero, FL	3.0	3.5	2342	$12,500	$5.34	23d	1	1.29mi
4761 W Bay Blvd #703 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2150	$9,000	$4.19	23d	1	1.31mi
21790 Sunset Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2758	$3,200	$1.16	14d	1	1.41mi
19500 Marsh Point Run #201 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$5,000	$2.45	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $665 · $7,980/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,900 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,900 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,900 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,900 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $424,900 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $424,900 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $424,900 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $424,900 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $424,900
11. 2026-05-01
    price $429,900
12. 2026-03-18
    price $435,000
13. 2026-02-18
    price $449,000
14. 2026-02-15
    price $469,900
15. 2026-01-22
    price $475,000
16. 2025-11-14
    price $499,900
17. 2025-11-01
    price $529,000
18. 2025-09-29
    listed $549,000 Active
19. 2017-11-16
    soldstatus $290,000
20. 2017-11-15
    soldstatus $290,000 Sold 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    C. 13834 - Designer Finishes, Big Lake View, Upgrades, 2 Car Garage and Close to some of the best shopping and restaurants in the area. Wide open floor plan, large outdoor living area, one of a kind finishes and perfect location within the neighborhood. The gated community features a sun lovers pool, clubhouse and workout facility. Located within minutes to FGCU and RSW Airport. This residence has been gently occupied and pride of ownership is clearly apparent. Expect to be impressed.

21. 2017-10-23
    status Pending With Contingencies 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    C. 13834 - Designer Finishes, Big Lake View, Upgrades, 2 Car Garage and Close to some of the best shopping and restaurants in the area. Wide open floor plan, large outdoor living area, one of a kind finishes and perfect location within the neighborhood. The gated community features a sun lovers pool, clubhouse and workout facility. Located within minutes to FGCU and RSW Airport. This residence has been gently occupied and pride of ownership is clearly apparent. Expect to be impressed.

22. 2017-07-28
    listed $310,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    C. 13834 - Designer Finishes, Big Lake View, Upgrades, 2 Car Garage and Close to some of the best shopping and restaurants in the area. Wide open floor plan, large outdoor living area, one of a kind finishes and perfect location within the neighborhood. The gated community features a sun lovers pool, clubhouse and workout facility. Located within minutes to FGCU and RSW Airport. This residence has been gently occupied and pride of ownership is clearly apparent. Expect to be impressed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,624 · $469/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,624 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,801
• − Property taxes: −$5,624
• − Insurance: −$2,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,988
• − Management: −$2,988
• − HOA: −$7,980
• − Depreciation: −$12,361
• Taxable loss: −$20,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,924
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $424,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $429,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $435,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $469,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $475,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $499,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $529,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $549,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-15 Sold (MLS) $290,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-10-23 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-07-28 Listed $310,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,624 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.