13600 Pino Ct · Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $244/sqft · 7% below area Est $355k · 7% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

+/- 1350 sqft manufactured home on a gorgeous almost completely level one acre parcel in the Lake Don Pedro area. Three bedrooms two bathrooms with a laundry room. Partially covered deck for entertaining and relaxing. The property has a detached 2 car garage with a circle driveway and is completely fenced. HOA dues of $100 a year includes Community Pool. Lake McClure and Lake Don Pedro are nearby. Cash only. Needs some TLC.

Key facts

• Fenced
• Shade trees
• Covered back deck

Tags

• WHEELCHAIR RAMP
• COVERED BACK DECK
• FENCED
• GATED
• USEABLE LAND
• SHADE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tenaya Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Don Pedro High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 50 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 11444% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $329k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,217 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,170
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -7.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13574 Hoyito Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	17mo	$280,000	$182	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,243
• Equity at exit: $122,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $60,389
• Equity at exit: $170,660

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95329

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,483/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,636

Max offer price $294,989

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-99	+0% $-193	+5% $-286	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-287	+0% $-193	+5% $-98	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-109	base $-193	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $329,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $329,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   price $329,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $339,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-04-09
    historical $2,200
21. 2026-02-19
    price $2,200
22. 2025-11-14
    price $2,500
23. 2025-11-13
    listed $2,850
24. 2016-04-26
    soldstatus $84,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    +/- 1350 sqft manufactured home on a gorgeous almost completely level one acre parcel in the Lake Don Pedro area. Three bedrooms two bathrooms with a laundry room. Partially covered deck for entertaining and relaxing. The property has a detached 2 car garage with a circle driveway and is completely fenced. HOA dues of $100 a year includes Community Pool. Lake McClure and Lake Don Pedro are nearby. Cash only. Needs some TLC.

25. 2015-11-18
    listed $94,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    +/- 1350 sqft manufactured home on a gorgeous almost completely level one acre parcel in the Lake Don Pedro area. Three bedrooms two bathrooms with a laundry room. Partially covered deck for entertaining and relaxing. The property has a detached 2 car garage with a circle driveway and is completely fenced. HOA dues of $100 a year includes Community Pool. Lake McClure and Lake Don Pedro are nearby. Cash only. Needs some TLC.

26. 1994-06-21
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,483 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$2,483
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$8,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,961
• After-tax cash flow: $-349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Don Pedro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #23601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,339

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 163.9206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $2,200 RENTEC
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $2,200 RENTEC
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $2,500 RENTEC
• 2025-11-13 Listed for Rent $2,850 RENTEC
• 2016-04-26 Sold (MLS) $84,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-11-18 Listed $94,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1994-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,483 · +136.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.