568 Val Verde St · Aubrey, TX 76227

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2021 4,792 sqft lot $174/sqft · 16% below area Est $338k · 16% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out 568 Val Verde St, a functional residence providing everyday comfort. The kitchen includes a functional island, an accent backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom features a walk-in closet, and the primary bathroom contains double sinks. Exterior grounds include a fenced backyard. This home presents an ideal combination of refined comfort and practical design. Home comes with a 100-Day Home Warranty and a 7-Day Home Test Drive to move in 7 days early for free

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee; Association fee covers grounds maintenance; HOA managed by FirstService Residential Texas

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Security system does not convey (exclusion noted)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 2021; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Slab foundation; Preowned
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hl Brockett (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 529 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,572 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,216
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -15.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
677 Coleman St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+1%)	5mo	$325,000	$197	83
632 Coleman St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$180	79
1005 Karen St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+3%)	2mo	$329,900	$195	73
272 Irick Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-4%)	10mo	$298,000	$189	66
225 Holly Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-3%)	3mo	$325,000	$204	59
203 Surveyors Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-7%)	1mo	$320,000	$211	58
245 Highmeadow Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+5%)	6mo	$339,000	$197	58
816 Ridgecrest Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-3%)	10mo	$325,000	$205	57
118 Perkins Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-8%)	1mo	$314,900	$210	54
828 Greenview Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-8%)	1mo	$320,000	$213	53
1010 Diane St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	2mo	$409,900	$224	51
324 Stanley Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	10mo	$320,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-79,605
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-128,378
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,787/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,713

Max offer price $209,572

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	7d	1	0.11mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	16d	1	0.11mi
1011 Pecos St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,300	$1.13	43d	1	0.15mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	43d	1	0.19mi
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	7d	1	0.28mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	43d	1	0.33mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	43d	1	0.39mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	2d	1	0.42mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	18d	1	0.43mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.47mi
225 Glenview Dr Unit Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,350	$1.16	2d	1	0.53mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	4d	1	0.74mi
513 Rock Hill Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,499	$1.44	1d	1	0.87mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	43d	1	0.89mi
728 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	15d	1	1.02mi
732 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,986	$1.30	43d	1	1.03mi
717 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,750	$1.15	43d	1	1.04mi
2009 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	5d	1	1.06mi
2021 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,890	$1.24	43d	1	1.08mi
2031 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,950	$1.29	6d	1	1.08mi
2043 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	17d	1	1.11mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	24d	1	1.11mi
2037 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,995	$1.16	20d	1	1.12mi
2029 Welsh Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,066	$1.36	12d	1	1.13mi
2051 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.13mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	12d	1	1.15mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	43d	1	1.16mi
2061 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,116	$1.28	24d	1	1.20mi
213 S Magnolia St Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.5	1261	$1,395	$1.11	43d	1	1.22mi
608 Arabian Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,150	$1.04	7d	1	1.30mi
604 Arabian Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,150	$1.04	7d	1	1.31mi
660 Stud Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,499	$1.21	1d	1	1.35mi
608 Stud Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,250	$1.09	24d	1	1.36mi
2220 Pommel Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$1,995	$0.97	10d	1	1.37mi
206 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	1.39mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	44d	1	1.46mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $296,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $296,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $308,000 494-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $320,000 Active 494-char remark
17. 2026-04-13
    soldstatus
18. 2025-02-07
    historical
19. 2025-01-02
    price $345,000
20. 2024-12-31
    price $400,000
21. 2024-11-07
    listed $350,000 Active
22. 2024-09-30
    historical
23. 2024-09-23
    price $340,000
24. 2024-08-06
    price $349,999
25. 2024-05-23
    price $358,000
26. 2024-05-18
    price $369,900
27. 2024-05-09
    listed $379,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,787 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,787 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,787
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $296,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $308,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $400,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $349,999 NTREIS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $358,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $369,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $379,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+61.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,787 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.