Dowing Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$248,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Townhouse · 74 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-762/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,340 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,417
• Equity at exit: $37,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,694
• Equity at exit: $21,486

Cash invested: $69,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,727/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,174

Max offer price $239,305

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $22	+0% $-64	+5% $-149	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-146	+0% $-64	+5% $19	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $0	base $-64	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,125
• Closing costs: $7,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1033 Windflower New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2335	$2,500	$1.07	2d	1	0.48mi
956 Heartseed Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2284	$2,200	$0.96	22d	1	0.64mi
945 Heartseed Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	0.64mi
951 Bluegrass Pt New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,775	$1.17	44d	1	0.67mi
936 Heartseed Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.67mi
946 Bluegrass Pt New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	17d	1	0.69mi
946 Bluegrass Pt New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	44d	1	0.69mi
942 Bluegrass Pt New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,350	$1.16	17d	1	0.70mi
942 Bluegrass Pt New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,350	$1.16	15d	1	0.70mi
759 Crested Iris New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	18d	1	0.90mi
2900 Farm to Market Road 1101 Unit 1101 New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1665	$1,587	$0.95	5d	1	0.98mi
3025 Farm to Market Road 1101 Unit 28NB-4-2 New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,581	$0.95	18d	1	1.04mi
3019 Farm to Market Road 1101 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$1,581	$0.95	24d	1	1.04mi
3025 Farm to Market Road 1101 Unit 1101 New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1665	$1,699	$1.02	24d	1	1.04mi
2985 Sweetroot Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,137	$1.58	2d	5	1.05mi
1275 Grace Park Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1874	$1,639	$0.87	3d	1	1.48mi
677 Creekside Way New Braunfels, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1234	$2,389	$1.94	2d	38	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,499 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,499 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,499 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,499 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,499 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $248,499 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $247,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $248,999 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $249,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

17. 2026-04-18
    price $250,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $278,999 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,920
• − Property taxes: −$3,727
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$7,229
• Taxable loss: −$5,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home offers a spacious and modern open-concept layout with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and interior can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Can increase both resale and rental value by modernizing the space.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Can increase both resale and rental value by modernizing the space.
• Both Adding smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern technology and convenience.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Can increase both resale and rental value by modernizing the space. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Can increase both resale and rental value by modernizing the space. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern technology and convenience. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $250,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $278,999 Zillow