103 Ferguson St SW · Palm Bay, FL 32908

$357,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,829 sqft · Land · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION WITH WARRANTY! Estimated delivery June 2026. The St. Augustine blends indoor and outdoor living with a welcoming covered front porch, expansive covered lanai, and a bright, open floor plan. A vaulted ceiling enhances the main living area, connecting the dining room with double windows, kitchen with freestanding island and pantry, and a spacious Great Room with a wall of sliding glass doors for abundant natural light. The split-bedroom layout offers a private primary suite with two walk-in closets and a bath featuring a dual-sink vanity, large linen closet, and tiled shower. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. This home

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Split-bedroom layout
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED LANAI
• VAULTED CEILING
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $358k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1020 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($353k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,896 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.02%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-99,383
• Equity at exit: $53,377

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-150,535
• Equity at exit: $30,952

Cash invested: $100,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32908

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1020
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,877
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,370/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $273,093

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-339	-5% $-463	+0% $-587	+5% $-710	+10% $-834
Rent	-10% $-775	-5% $-681	+0% $-587	+5% $-492	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-406	-0.5pp $-496	base $-587	+0.5pp $-679	+1.0pp $-774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,498
• Closing costs: $10,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	24d	1	0.28mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	15d	1	0.33mi
3270 Framingham Ave SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,400	$1.29	24d	1	0.38mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	14d	1	0.45mi
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	14d	1	0.61mi
448 Saint Andre Blvd SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2088	$4,000	$1.92	24d	1	0.67mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	24d	1	0.71mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	15d	1	0.85mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	24d	1	0.85mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	24d	1	0.90mi
583 Halifax St SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,075	$1.13	14d	1	0.94mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	0.95mi
2650 De Groodt Rd SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,350	$1.25	15d	1	0.99mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	22d	1	1.12mi
555 Gagnon St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,400	$1.01	24d	1	1.20mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	1.39mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $357,990 Active
3. 2025-09-30
   soldstatus $910,900
4. 2024-10-24
   soldstatus $406,200
5. 1997-10-21
   soldstatus $292,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,053
• − Property taxes: −$5,370
• − Insurance: −$1,790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − Depreciation: −$10,414
• Taxable loss: −$13,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,535
• Household income: $79,596
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 112.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Estonian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.22%
• Current HPI: 330.0399
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $357,990 SCMLS
• 2025-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $910,900 Public Records
• 2024-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $406,200 Public Records
• 1997-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $292,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $558 · +36.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.