16781 Hilltop Ave · Orland Hills, IL 60487

$349,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,021 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1976 5,000 sqft lot Est $288k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL REMODELED TRI LEVEL GLEAMING OAK HARDWOOD FLRS THROUGHOUT NICE SIZE BEDROOMS AND HUGE FAMILY ROOM. NEW QUARTZ KITCHEN SLOW CLOSE DOORS AND DRAWERS, NEWLY REMODELED CUSTOM CERAMIC BATHS, FRESH NEW PAINT, ALL LED LIGHTING, NEW HOTWATER TANK, FURNACE AND AC, 5 YEARS OLD.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#73 in IL, #1,211 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: commute D.
• Cons Hsd 230 (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #146 of 620 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Victor J Andrew High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 2,259 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $290k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $260,410 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,922
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16753 Hilltop Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	973 (-5%)	1mo	$220,000	$226	87
16738 Hilltop Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	959 (-6%)	1mo	$236,000	$246	84
16810 Hilltop Ave	0.05mi	3/1.5	936 (-8%)	3mo	$290,000	$310	82
16753 91st Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	959 (-6%)	7mo	$229,000	$239	80
9057 W 169th Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,051 (+3%)	11mo	$385,000	$366	76
16765 Haven Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	0mo	$270,000	$288	72
16810 Highview Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	951 (-7%)	12mo	$268,000	$282	70
16617 Leslie Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,117 (+9%)	3mo	$325,000	$291	67
16738 Hobart Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	959 (-6%)	5mo	$215,000	$224	60
17019 Westwood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,171 (+15%)	6mo	$330,000	$282	57
16249 92nd Ave	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	965 (-6%)	0mo	$261,000	$270	51
8620 W 170th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+15%)	10mo	$351,000	$300	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-88,511
• Equity at exit: $52,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-117,765
• Equity at exit: $30,218

Cash invested: $97,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60487

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,833
• Tax from tax record: −$581 /mo · $6,976/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,240

Max offer price $260,731

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,375
• Closing costs: $10,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16450 Cherry Hill Ave Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,100	$2.26	7d	1	0.71mi
16180 Apple Ln #2 Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.5	1250	$2,900	$2.32	4d	1	0.99mi
16641 Liberty Cir Unit 2S Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,650	$2.94	7d	1	1.07mi
16610 Liberty Cir Unit 1N Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	2d	1	1.10mi
15834 Orlan Brook Dr Unit 3E Orland Park, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	17d	1	1.33mi
15826 Farm Hill Dr Orland Park, IL	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	10d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,500 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $349,500 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,500 Active (Private) 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,500 Active (Private) 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,500 Active (Private) 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,500 Active (Private) 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $349,500 Active (Private) 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,976 · $581/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,455 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: +$479/yr (+$40/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,577
• − Property taxes: −$6,976
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,167
• Taxable loss: −$12,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cons Hsd 230
• NCES district ID: 1708400
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $73,953
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #5244
• State rank: #146 of 620 in IL

Livability — Orland Hills

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1211

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orland Hills, IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,881

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Iranian 2% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Arabic 7% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.80%
• Current HPI: 181.7726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+913.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $349,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-08 Sold (MLS) $290,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-20 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-11 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $299,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1978-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1976-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,976 · +77.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.