4618 White Buffalo Trl · Oak Point, TX 75068

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 $185/sqft · 30% below area Est $483k · 30% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Better living starts now - take advantage of Improved Pricing plus Up to $20K Incentive on all Move-In Ready Homes * * The Birch Plan at Wildridge in Oak Point offers low-maintenance living combined with contemporary charm. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom plan boasts 1,840 SQ FT of thoughtfully designed, family-centric living. This two-story luxury townhome provides flexibility and functionality with an open concept layout of entertaining and dining spaces on the first floor and a cozy loft and privately situated bedrooms on the second floor. Equipped with a 2-car garage and a cedar-fenced patio, this home is the complete package. The Wildridge community offers a unique blend of comfort, connection, and convenience-all in a setting that feels like a retreat from the everyday.

Key facts

• Open concept layout
• Wildridge community
• Cedar fenced patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CEDAR FENCED PATIO
• WILDRIDGE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1320 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,263 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,462
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -29.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4113 Crossroads Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+2%)	3mo	$369,800	$196	81
4305 Expedition Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,913 (+4%)	2mo	$357,500	$187	79
8828 Cassidy Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+0%)	2mo	$379,000	$206	71
3136 Brazoria Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,802 (-2%)	1mo	$395,000	$219	66
8917 Tenderfoot Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,831 (-0%)	5mo	$314,990	$172	65
8805 Deadwood Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,837 (-0%)	4mo	$350,000	$191	65
9405 Longhorn Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,815 (-1%)	2mo	$370,000	$204	64
1051 Roundup St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,822 (-1%)	3mo	$290,000	$159	64
8904 Whirlwind Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+1%)	1mo	$325,000	$175	63
9408 Acorn Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,819 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$192	57
8808 Cassidy Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,040 (+11%)	6mo	$390,000	$191	47
8805 Cassidy Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,046 (+11%)	1mo	$394,500	$193	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-86,061
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-133,631
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1320
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $286,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-254	+0% $-372	+5% $-489	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-471	+0% $-372	+5% $-273	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-285	base $-372	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4123 Windy Point Rd Oak Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2249	$2,999	$1.33	14d	1	0.22mi
3101 Bell Flower Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1736	$3,000	$1.73	0d	1	0.57mi
3140 Brazoria Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,895	$1.60	5d	1	0.65mi
8905 Deadwood Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,290	$1.63	16d	1	0.66mi
9225 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1854	$2,600	$1.40	14d	1	0.67mi
9105 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,565	$1.38	22d	1	0.67mi
8924 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,995	$1.39	18d	1	0.68mi
8732 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,095	$1.13	45d	1	0.78mi
9620 Oxbow Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2268	$2,795	$1.23	7d	1	0.84mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,719	$1.55	0d	33	0.86mi
9011 King Ranch Dr Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,600	$1.16	45d	1	0.89mi
8824 Sagebrush Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1959	$2,100	$1.07	5d	1	0.89mi
1108 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	5d	1	0.89mi
9916 Echo Summit Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2246	$2,550	$1.14	6d	1	0.93mi
1108 Longhorn Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,450	$1.47	45d	1	0.94mi
579 Lloyd's Rd Unit 1102A Little Elm, TX	3.0	3.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	45d	1	0.94mi
8748 Sagebrush Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$2,195	$1.17	20d	1	0.95mi
8908 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,172	$0.92	6d	1	0.96mi
3609 Sabine Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,395	$1.18	11d	1	0.96mi
8820 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,000	$0.83	9d	1	0.98mi
609 Racine Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	45d	1	1.03mi
8613 Sagebrush Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,895	$1.18	0d	1	1.07mi
832 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,300	$1.62	25d	1	1.08mi
8720 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$1,950	$1.04	45d	1	1.09mi
8821 Tumbleweed Dr Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,950	$1.42	20d	1	1.10mi
8113 Spitfire Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2337	$2,400	$1.03	45d	1	1.12mi
8621 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,995	$1.06	45d	1	1.13mi
8621 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,985	$1.06	0d	1	1.13mi
8621 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,995	$1.06	23d	1	1.13mi
436 Northbrook Ave Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,095	$1.38	45d	1	1.15mi
9005 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1557	$2,100	$1.35	13d	1	1.17mi
8621 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,795	$1.31	45d	1	1.18mi
8404 Sioux Trl Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2573	$2,800	$1.09	25d	1	1.18mi
9220 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,400	$1.27	14d	1	1.20mi
529 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,979	$1.31	4d	1	1.21mi
9016 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,795	$1.40	9d	1	1.23mi
608 Pawnee St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,550	$1.17	5d	1	1.25mi
3837 Pennington Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2431	$2,650	$1.09	4d	1	1.29mi
213 Kistler Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,495	$1.01	23d	1	1.30mi
3876 Lyndhurst Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2471	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,900 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $339,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    * * Better living starts now - take advantage of Improved Pricing plus Up to $20K Incentive on all Move-In Ready Homes * * The Birch Plan at Wildridge in Oak Point offers low-maintenance living combined with contemporary charm. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom plan boasts 1,840 SQ FT of thoughtfully designed, family-centric living. This two-story luxury townhome provides flexibility and functionality with an open concept layout of entertaining and dining spaces on the first floor and a cozy loft and privately situated bedrooms on the second floor. Equipped with a 2-car garage and a cedar-fenced patio, this home is the complete package. The Wildridge community offers a unique blend of comfort, connection, and convenience-all in a setting that feels like a retreat from the everyday.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $364,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    * * Better living starts now - take advantage of Improved Pricing plus Up to $20K Incentive on all Move-In Ready Homes * * The Birch Plan at Wildridge in Oak Point offers low-maintenance living combined with contemporary charm. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom plan boasts 1,840 SQ FT of thoughtfully designed, family-centric living. This two-story luxury townhome provides flexibility and functionality with an open concept layout of entertaining and dining spaces on the first floor and a cozy loft and privately situated bedrooms on the second floor. Equipped with a 2-car garage and a cedar-fenced patio, this home is the complete package. The Wildridge community offers a unique blend of comfort, connection, and convenience-all in a setting that feels like a retreat from the everyday.

17. 2026-03-14
    price $374,900 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    * * Better living starts now - take advantage of Improved Pricing plus Up to $20K Incentive on all Move-In Ready Homes * * The Birch Plan at Wildridge in Oak Point offers low-maintenance living combined with contemporary charm. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom plan boasts 1,840 SQ FT of thoughtfully designed, family-centric living. This two-story luxury townhome provides flexibility and functionality with an open concept layout of entertaining and dining spaces on the first floor and a cozy loft and privately situated bedrooms on the second floor. Equipped with a 2-car garage and a cedar-fenced patio, this home is the complete package. The Wildridge community offers a unique blend of comfort, connection, and convenience-all in a setting that feels like a retreat from the everyday.

18. 2026-01-12
    listed $404,900 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    * * Better living starts now - take advantage of Improved Pricing plus Up to $20K Incentive on all Move-In Ready Homes * * The Birch Plan at Wildridge in Oak Point offers low-maintenance living combined with contemporary charm. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom plan boasts 1,840 SQ FT of thoughtfully designed, family-centric living. This two-story luxury townhome provides flexibility and functionality with an open concept layout of entertaining and dining spaces on the first floor and a cozy loft and privately situated bedrooms on the second floor. Equipped with a 2-car garage and a cedar-fenced patio, this home is the complete package. The Wildridge community offers a unique blend of comfort, connection, and convenience-all in a setting that feels like a retreat from the everyday.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$10,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Point, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $364,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $374,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-12 Listed $404,900 Zillow