117 Basin Hill Rd · Duncannon, PA 17020

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1973 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($264/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#893 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Susquenita SD (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #275 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Susquenita Hs (math 64%, 503 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,512 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,033
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,052
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17020

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $72	+0% $22	+5% $-28	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-32	+0% $22	+5% $76	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $67	base $22	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-18
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2024-10-28
   soldstatus $60,000
6. 1977-04-01
   soldstatus $22,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,035/yr (+$86/mo · 149.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susquenita SD
• NCES district ID: 4223040
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,765
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #4240
• State rank: #275 of 539 in PA

Livability — Duncannon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #9501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,625

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,250 people
• By 2030: 42,862 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 39,574 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 36,001 · -18.6%
• By 2075: 27,991 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 20,936 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 8% Slovak 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.3) · D 24.8% · R 74.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -49.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.3 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+38.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.15%
• Current HPI: 167.8117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+664.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1977-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $695 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.