6288 Maricopa Rd · Phelan, CA 92371

$319,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2002 4.77 ac lot $150/sqft · 37% below area Est $508k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly five acres in Phelan, where Southern California opens up into sky, silence, and possibility. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 2,128 square foot manufactured home built in 2002 offers real space both inside and out, sitting on 4.77 acres of usable land with mountain views stretching across the High Desert. The layout is generous and practical, designed for daily living without compromises, while the land gives you freedom rarely found this close to Los Angeles. Just minutes from local markets and school bus pickup, about 30 minutes to Victorville, and less than two hours from LA, you're also close to Mountain High's winter snow and year-round alpine trails. Phelan is known for its genuine, service-oriented community and that quiet, small-town feel people are searching for. This is an opportunity to live or invest in Southern California without giving up space, privacy, or access to nature. Probate sale. Court confirmation is not required. Property is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs, credits, or concessions of any kind. Buyer is advised to independently verify all information, including square footage, lot size, permits, zoning, usage, and condition, through personal inspection and appropriate licensed professionals prior to submitting an offer. Seller and seller's agents make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied. Available for sale as part of the same estate: 13377 Paramount Rd, 4120 La Mesa Rd, 4388 Amador Rd, 6288 Maricopa Rd, 6425 Smoke Tree Rd.

Key facts

• Close to markets
• Usable land
• Mountain views

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CLOSE TO MARKETS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOL BUS PICKUP
• CLOSE TO MOUNTAIN HIGH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($365/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $319k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,540 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $508,151
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -37.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5888 Chevoit Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,176 (+2%)	24mo	$405,000	$186	53
6320 Cholame Rd	0.38mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-13%)	8mo	$399,000	$216	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $105,727
• Equity at exit: $213,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $306,595
• Equity at exit: $397,733

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,001/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,497

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-03-02
    listed $359,000 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    Nearly five acres in Phelan, where Southern California opens up into sky, silence, and possibility. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 2,128 square foot manufactured home built in 2002 offers real space both inside and out, sitting on 4.77 acres of usable land with mountain views stretching across the High Desert. The layout is generous and practical, designed for daily living without compromises, while the land gives you freedom rarely found this close to Los Angeles. Just minutes from local markets and school bus pickup, about 30 minutes to Victorville, and less than two hours from LA, you're also close to Mountain High's winter snow and year-round alpine trails. Phelan is known for its genuine, service-oriented community and that quiet, small-town feel people are searching for. This is an opportunity to live or invest in Southern California without giving up space, privacy, or access to nature. Probate sale. Court confirmation is not required. Property is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs, credits, or concessions of any kind. Buyer is advised to independently verify all information, including square footage, lot size, permits, zoning, usage, and condition, through personal inspection and appropriate licensed professionals prior to submitting an offer. Seller and seller's agents make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied. Available for sale as part of the same estate: 13377 Paramount Rd, 4120 La Mesa Rd, 4388 Amador Rd, 6288 Maricopa Rd, 6425 Smoke Tree Rd.

15. 2004-07-06
    soldstatus $189,500 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Very large, nearly new, excellent condition. Spacious family room; big screen ready. Bright and cheery kitchen with skylight and adjacent formal dining area. Large laundry room with storage. Huge master suite with sitting room. Master bath with Roman tub and seperate shower. Walk in closet, too. All this on nearly 5 acres of level land, less than a mile from paved road.

16. 2004-07-06
    soldstatus $189,500

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Very large, nearly new, excellent condition. Spacious family room; big screen ready. Bright and cheery kitchen with skylight and adjacent formal dining area. Large laundry room with storage. Huge master suite with sitting room. Master bath with Roman tub and seperate shower. Walk in closet, too. All this on nearly 5 acres of level land, less than a mile from paved road.

17. 2002-02-08
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 41% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥97°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$2,001
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,434
• − Management: −$2,434
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$5,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2011.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $359,000 TheMLS
• 2004-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $189,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-06 Sold (MLS) $189,500 CRMLS
• 2002-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.