1411 Graybill Rd NW · Roanoke, VA 24017

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1946 9,583 sqft lot $134/sqft · 19% below area Est $220k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks in Roanoke City! This 2-bed, 1-bath cottage is a prime find for first-time buyers looking to build equity or investors. Perfectly situated just minutes from Salem and downtown Roanoke, this home offers unbeatable convenience. While this home needs some TLC, it provides a solid foundation for your creative vision. The property features a fantastic flat and cleared yard, ideal for outdoor living or gardening. With a front access ramp and a functional layout, this home is a blank canvas ready for transformation. Sold as-is, this is one of the most affordable entry points into the local market. Bring your paint brush and sweat equity to unlock this home's true value. Schedule

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1946

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: SHEPHERD REALTY GROUP
• Financial info: Annual tax noted

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1946
• Construction: Year built: 1946
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; 0.22-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air oil heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Storage; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,093 of 1,108 statewide, top 99%, 640 students, 98% FRL); William Fleming High (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 1,911 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 67% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,966 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,841
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -45.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Bellevue Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	896 (+1%)	4mo	$185,000	$206	80
1720 Millbrook St	0.35mi	2/1.0	864 (-3%)	3mo	$221,500	$256	76
724 Peck St NW	0.61mi	2/1.0	927 (+4%)	5mo	$199,900	$216	60
809 Ward St	0.55mi	2/1.0	774 (-13%)	2mo	$189,000	$244	51
940 Caldwell St NW	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	953 (+7%)	17mo	$220,000	$231	51
818 Peck St NW	0.53mi	2/1.0	844 (-5%)	22mo	$148,000	$175	49
5011 Morwanda St NW	0.66mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	19mo	$133,000	$158	44
103 Ross St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+12%)	4mo	$133,400	$133	40
4924 Morwanda St NW	0.73mi	2/1.5	811 (-9%)	12mo	$176,000	$217	40
102 Ross St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+12%)	8mo	$229,950	$230	38
5121 Springfield Ave NW	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,005 (+13%)	16mo	$215,300	$214	35
4527 Edgelawn Ave NW	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	23mo	$135,000	$134	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,075
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $28,160
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24017

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $237	+0% $203	+5% $170	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $157	+0% $203	+5% $250	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $234	base $203	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1741 Pexton Ave Salem, VA	3.0	1.0	792	$1,452	$1.83	14d	1	0.36mi
4310 Tyree Rd NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	913	$1,650	$1.81	14d	1	0.71mi
4112 Virginia Ave NW Roanoke, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	44d	1	0.87mi
829 Westside Blvd NW Apt 2 Roanoke, VA	1.0	1.0	700	$895	$1.28	44d	1	1.10mi
817 Westside Blvd NW Unit A Roanoke, VA	1.0	1.0	525	$716	$1.36	21d	1	1.13mi
813 Westside Blvd NW Apt A Roanoke, VA	1.0	1.0	525	$716	$1.36	44d	1	1.14mi
809 Westside Blvd NW Apt C Roanoke, VA	1.0	1.0	525	$696	$1.33	44d	1	1.15mi
3802 Panorama Ave NW #12 Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.27mi
3802 Panorama Ave NW #2 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	44d	1	1.27mi
3802 Panorama Ave NW #6 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 751-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $119,000 Active 751-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $2,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103300
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #3639
• State rank: #102 of 131 in VA

Livability — Roanoke

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #5055

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roanoke, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 168,930
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 23,678
• Household income: $47,360
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,094 people
• By 2030: 108,927 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 114,104 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 118,032 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 123,363 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 116,827 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.6) · D 61.1% · R 37.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 23.4pp · 2024: 23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.6 2020: D+25.8 2016: D+17.6 2012: D+21.5 2008: D+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.29%
• Current HPI: 198.5991
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-05-07 Listed $119,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.