Bay Leaf Plan · Watson, LA 70706

$237,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,581 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Whispering Springs, Denham Springs, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage. Three additional secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned throughout the home, providing flexibility for children's rooms, guest space, home office needs, or hobby areas, all supported by a conveniently located second fu

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $237,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $252,620.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $238k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,489 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,620
• List price: $237,900
• Delta: -5.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35510 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,576 (-0%)	2mo	$236,920	$150	89
35489 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	1mo	$230,900	$153	80
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	1mo	$260,900	$157	80
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	1mo	$256,900	$155	80
35423 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	1mo	$258,795	$167	80
35531 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	3mo	$231,900	$154	79
35501 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	3mo	$227,900	$151	79
35411 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	3mo	$251,900	$163	78
35606 Vandora Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	2mo	$251,900	$163	77
35516 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-12%)	1mo	$227,900	$164	64
35594 Vandora Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	3mo	$241,900	$180	55
35612 Vandora Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	3mo	$241,900	$180	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,341
• Equity at exit: $37,666

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,996
• Equity at exit: $21,842

Cash invested: $70,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,789/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,210

Max offer price $252,620

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $222	+0% $134	+5% $47	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $40	+0% $134	+5% $228	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $199	base $134	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,155
• Closing costs: $7,579
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	20d	1	0.10mi
13111 Fowler Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,700	$1.35	45d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $237,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $237,900 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,581 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Whispering Springs, Denham Springs, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage. Three additional secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned throughout the home, providing flexibility for children's rooms, guest space, home office needs, or hobby areas, all supported by a conveniently located second fu

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,789
• − Insurance: −$1,263
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,285
• − Management: −$2,285
• − Depreciation: −$7,349
• Taxable loss: −$2,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $2,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a functional and stylish floor plan perfect for families and first-time buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $237,900 Zillow