Bay Leaf Plan · Denham Springs, LA 70706

$237,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily · 201 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,581 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Whispering Springs, Denham Springs, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $237,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,447.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 467 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,447
• List price: $237,900
• Delta: -6.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35492 Forest Manor Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,576 (-0%)	4mo	$237,900	$151	87
35534 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	1mo	$229,900	$153	82
35486 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	3mo	$265,900	$160	80
35474 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	3mo	$260,900	$157	80
35483 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	3mo	$234,225	$156	79
35405 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	3mo	$261,900	$158	79
35459 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	3mo	$256,900	$166	78
35489 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	4mo	$230,900	$153	78
35423 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	4mo	$258,795	$167	77
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	4mo	$256,900	$155	77
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	4mo	$260,900	$157	77
35516 Forest Manor Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-12%)	4mo	$227,900	$164	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,777
• Equity at exit: $37,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,994
• Equity at exit: $21,913

Cash invested: $70,965 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,900 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,802/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $240,407

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $-3	+0% $-90	+5% $-178	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-173	+0% $-90	+5% $-7	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-26	base $-90	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,362
• Closing costs: $7,603
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	114d	1	0.10mi
12600 Woodland Hill Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	2030	$1,950	$0.96	0d	1	0.11mi
35657 Woodland Ridge Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1629	$1,900	$1.17	0d	1	0.25mi
13111 Fowler Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,700	$1.35	139d	1	0.60mi
35603 Grovemont Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1722	$1,775	$1.03	0d	1	0.61mi
35572 Grovemont Dr Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,300	$1.26	6d	1	0.64mi
35517 Grovemont Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1836	$1,950	$1.06	61d	1	0.67mi
35434 Grovemont Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,950	$1.07	0d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,900 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,900 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,900 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,900 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,900 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,900 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,900 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,900 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,900 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,900 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,900 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $237,900 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,900 Active 177 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,900 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $237,900 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $237,900 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $237,900 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $237,900 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $237,900 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $237,900 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $237,900 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $237,900 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $237,900 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $237,900 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $237,900 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $237,900 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,900 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,900 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $237,900 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $237,900 Active 158 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $237,900 Active 157 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $237,900 Active 156 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $237,900 Active 155 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $237,900 Active 154 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $237,900 Active 153 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $237,900 Active 152 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $237,900 Active 151 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $237,900 Active 150 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 147 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $237,900 Active 145 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $237,900 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $237,900 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $237,900 Active 139 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $237,900 Active 138 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $237,900 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,197
• − Property taxes: −$3,802
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$7,373
• Taxable loss: −$5,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a functional and stylish floor plan perfect for families and first-time buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Denham Springs

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston · 158,511 people
• City population: 63,575
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,621
• Household income: $94,768
• Rent vs Own: 8.4% rent · 91.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

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Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $237,900 Zillow