14492 Carnegie Rd · Magalia, CA 95954

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1978 0.32 ac lot Est $283k · 30% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Fixer with Great Potential in Magalia! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,656 sq. ft. home offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to invest some TLC and bring out its full potential. Sitting on a spacious . 32-acre lot, this property features unique architectural details and plenty of space, both indoors and out. As you enter up the front staircase, you’re welcomed into a great room with a vaulted beam ceiling, creating a warm and open feel. The living room boasts a cozy wood stove, perfect for chilly mountain evenings, and flows into the dining area. The kitchen has ample storage and room for bar seating, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home also o

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Indoor laundry
• Bar seating

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• UNIQUE ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS
• VAULTED BEAM CEILING
• AMPLE STORAGE
• BAR SEATING
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,180 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14677 Bridgeport	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-1%)	2mo	$295,000	$181	81
14689 Carnegie	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-5%)	4mo	$290,000	$184	73
14503 Colter Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-4%)	5mo	$250,000	$157	72
14642 Bridgeport Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+5%)	9mo	$308,500	$177	68
6096 Guilford Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-14%)	5mo	$245,000	$171	68
14341 Troy Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+6%)	0mo	$322,000	$184	64
14639 Lafayette Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+12%)	9mo	$90,000	$48	60
14331 Troy Way	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+4%)	6mo	$345,000	$201	57
6234 Kilgord Ct	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,482 (-10%)	5mo	$250,000	$169	55
14655 Lafayette Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-13%)	6mo	$112,500	$78	54
14765 Carnegie Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-12%)	3mo	$155,000	$106	51
14713 Colter	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-11%)	7mo	$250,000	$169	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,419
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,185
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95954

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $81	+0% $12	+5% $-56	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-58	+0% $12	+5% $83	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $63	base $12	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14648 Lafayette Cir Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,000	$1.16	15d	1	0.24mi
14767 Masterson Way Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,400	$0.97	15d	1	0.76mi
14435 Skyway Magalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,325	$1.10	15d	1	0.93mi
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	15d	1	1.02mi
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	22d	1	1.02mi
14107 Norwich Cir Magalia, CA	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	22d	1	1.27mi
6245 Brevard Cir Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,100	$1.46	15d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $199,000 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Magalia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #25434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,488

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Russian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.49%
• Current HPI: 194.8809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B