15 W Northrup Pl · Buffalo, NY 14214

$265,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,815 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition 3,706 sqft lot Est $294k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property in popular UB area. Very close to Main Street. .. .. Could be a nice money maker. .. . All redone inside which is all new. .. . Fresh paint. .. . don't loose the opportunity. .. Come and check today. .. sold "as is". .. . Out of town owner is looking for offers. .. .

Key facts

• Newer kitchen
• Full basement
• Rear porch

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEWER KITCHEN
• CONVERTED SUNROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• REAR PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Metal roof; Composite siding; Wood siding; Copper plumbing; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Irregular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 34 x 109

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes sleeping areas)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Partially furnished; Separate/formal dining room; Natural woodwork; Sunroom / Florida room / Bonus room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,367/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $265k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $236,689 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,030
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Highgate Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,771 (-2%)	0mo	$218,000	$123	80
39 Winston Rd	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,877 (+3%)	1mo	$461,000	$246	62
176 Lasalle Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-12%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	59
216 Lasalle Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,638 (-10%)	6mo	$140,000	$85	57
106 Winston Rd	0.68mi	4/1.5	1,934 (+7%)	3mo	$450,000	$233	55
187 Highgate Ave	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,008 (+11%)	5mo	$295,000	$147	52
47 Winston Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,909 (+5%)	6mo	$310,000	$162	49
253 Winspear Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,584 (-13%)	6mo	$315,100	$199	48
58 Grandview Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,638 (-10%)	1mo	$251,000	$153	47
321 Voorhees Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,699 (-6%)	6mo	$486,600	$286	47
179 Niagara Falls Blvd	0.59mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,079 (+14%)	4mo	$315,000	$152	40
347 Lisbon Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,558 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-33,575
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,973
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14214

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $130	+0% $38	+5% $-53	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-55	+0% $38	+5% $132	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $106	base $38	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Custer St Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$3,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.09mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	16d	1	0.17mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	16d	1	0.20mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	3d	1	0.20mi
59 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2521	$1,250	$0.50	25d	1	0.20mi
102 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2426	$2,750	$1.13	3d	1	0.24mi
91 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2500	$2,000	$0.80	3d	1	0.25mi
63 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	3d	1	0.34mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	0.34mi
196 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	2560	$2,000	$0.78	3d	1	0.37mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	3d	10	0.38mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	0.40mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	0.40mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	16d	1	0.49mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	4d	1	0.54mi
80 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2591	$2,800	$1.08	3d	1	0.60mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	25d	1	0.91mi
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	3d	1	1.07mi
524 University Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,600	$0.87	3d	1	1.07mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	16d	1	1.11mi
414 Taunton Pl Unit Lowet Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,700	$1.38	16d	1	1.14mi
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.26mi
307 Sterling Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,800	$1.10	5d	1	1.32mi
202 Summit Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	25d	1	1.34mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	18d	1	1.40mi
309 N Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2560	$1,750	$0.68	16d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $265,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $1,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to its kitchen and bathroom, but presents a good opportunity for an investor looking to modernize and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major kitchen countertops — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom tiles — severely worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase its appeal
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom tiles · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase its appeal ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,314
• Household income: $58,228
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1820.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 31% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -282.52%
• Current HPI: 373.377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.81%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+104.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $265,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) $95,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-12-04 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-29 Price Changed $120,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-09-18 Listed $134,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-26 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-03-22 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS