3500 Carmen Ave #1504 · Rancho Viejo, TX 78575

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,138 sqft · Condo · 332 Days on market

Built 1982 Good condition $145/sqft · 31% above area Est $126k · 31% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly remodeled condo is ready for you to move in. All appliances convey in the sale. It's conveniently located just a walking distance of the new South Texas ISD high school. This beautiful two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo is situated on the second floor. It features two oversized patios, perfect for outdoor relaxation. New air conditioner! Schedule your showings today!

Key facts

• Walking distance
• New air conditioner
• Oversized patios

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED
• WALKING DISTANCE
• OVERSIZED PATIOS
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,788
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 31.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,993
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $25,890
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $414	+0% $357	+5% $300	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $282	+0% $357	+5% $432	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $440	-0.5pp $399	base $357	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3500 Carmen Ave #408 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	14d	1	0.02mi
3500 Carmen Ave #1103 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1222	$1,500	$1.23	44d	1	0.02mi
3500 Carmen Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$1,825	$1.59	14d	2	0.04mi
4601 Carmen Ave #1604 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	21d	1	0.89mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1903 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,000	$1.71	44d	1	0.92mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 2204 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,000	$1.76	14d	1	0.92mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1603 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$2,400	$1.81	14d	1	0.92mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	14d	1	1.12mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	14d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 322 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 316 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 315 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 314 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 313 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    price $165,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This newly remodeled condo is ready for you to move in. All appliances convey in the sale. It's conveniently located just a walking distance of the new South Texas ISD high school. This beautiful two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo is situated on the second floor. It features two oversized patios, perfect for outdoor relaxation. New air conditioner! Schedule your showings today!

18. 2025-09-17
    price $170,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This newly remodeled condo is ready for you to move in. All appliances convey in the sale. It's conveniently located just a walking distance of the new South Texas ISD high school. This beautiful two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo is situated on the second floor. It features two oversized patios, perfect for outdoor relaxation. New air conditioner! Schedule your showings today!

19. 2025-07-21
    listed $180,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This newly remodeled condo is ready for you to move in. All appliances convey in the sale. It's conveniently located just a walking distance of the new South Texas ISD high school. This beautiful two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo is situated on the second floor. It features two oversized patios, perfect for outdoor relaxation. New air conditioner! Schedule your showings today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $3,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly remodeled condo is move-in ready with fresh paint, new light fixtures, and a fresh coat of paint. It's conveniently located and features two oversized patios for outdoor relaxation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Upgrade flooring — New flooring can significantly increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring — New flooring can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rancho Viejo

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Viejo, TX
• City population: 4,728
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $165,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $170,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $180,000 RGVMLS