204 E Bailey St · Ponder, TX 76259

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2000 10,454 sqft lot $175/sqft · 15% below area Est $294k · 15% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 204 E Bailey St which sits on .24 acres! This charming home is located in the heart of Ponder just down the street from Old Town. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with original hardwood flooring throughout. The kitchen has tons of natural light and quartz countertops. Laundry has its own dedicated room. The large grassy backyard would be a dream play space for kids and entertaining. There is a storage shed with an attached carport. Don't miss out of this rare gem!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Attached carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE GRASSY BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($667/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Ponder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,269 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,043
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -14.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Shaffner St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,384 (-3%)	2mo	$250,000	$181	73
530 Del Mar Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+8%)	14mo	$279,900	$182	58
212 Meadowlands Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (+10%)	12mo	$298,000	$190	49
400 Lonestar Park Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+12%)	18mo	$298,500	$187	48
309 Pimlico Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (+10%)	9mo	$280,000	$179	47
345 Chestnut Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+9%)	2mo	$299,900	$192	44
540 Cantebury Park Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+15%)	11mo	$298,000	$182	44
211 Belmont Park Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+15%)	16mo	$319,999	$195	42
414 Saratoga Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+9%)	20mo	$300,000	$192	36
410 Saratoga Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (+10%)	20mo	$297,000	$190	36
527 Cantebury Park Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+15%)	20mo	$290,000	$177	35
405 Citation Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+9%)	16mo	$283,000	$181	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,919
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,380
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,086/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $126	+0% $56	+5% $-15	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-35	+0% $56	+5% $146	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $119	base $56	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 Lonestar Park Ln Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,000	$1.37	22d	1	0.35mi
536 Del Mar Dr Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,149	$1.31	44d	1	0.36mi
303 Preakness Ln Ponder, TX	4.0	2.0	1567	$2,011	$1.28	8d	1	0.53mi
311 Triple Crown Ln Unit NA Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,295	$1.34	22d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $275,000 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Welcome home to 204 E Bailey St which sits on .24 acres! This charming home is located in the heart of Ponder just down the street from Old Town. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with original hardwood flooring throughout. The kitchen has tons of natural light and quartz countertops. Laundry has its own dedicated room. The large grassy backyard would be a dream play space for kids and entertaining. There is a storage shed with an attached carport. Don't miss out of this rare gem!

15. 2026-04-10
    listed $290,000 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Welcome home to 204 E Bailey St which sits on .24 acres! This charming home is located in the heart of Ponder just down the street from Old Town. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with original hardwood flooring throughout. The kitchen has tons of natural light and quartz countertops. Laundry has its own dedicated room. The large grassy backyard would be a dream play space for kids and entertaining. There is a storage shed with an attached carport. Don't miss out of this rare gem!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,086 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,086
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $1,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ponder, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,086 · -20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.