501 Dogwood St · Panama City Beach, FL 32407

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1984 7,187 sqft lot Est $437k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LISTING OFFICE IS A BNON. LISTING AGENT IS A BNONA.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Tile flooring
• Fenced yard area

Tags

• LARGE OPEN MAIN LIVING AREA
• MULTIPLE EXTERIOR DOORS
• TILE FLOORING
• ACCESS TO THE BACKYARD
• DRIVEWAY
• FENCED YARD AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 120

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living room (22 x 17); Bonus room (17 x 18)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $250k implies a 401% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,652 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $437,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Dogwood St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,584 (0%)	0mo	$210,000	$133	100
224 Wiregrass Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-5%)	2mo	$465,000	$309	75
621 Albatross St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-0%)	4mo	$685,000	$433	71
222 Wiregrass Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+5%)	5mo	$432,500	$260	70
613 Gardenia St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	1mo	$330,000	$235	68
200 Wiregrass Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,662 (+5%)	4mo	$600,000	$361	65
511 Beth St	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,790 (+13%)	3mo	$415,000	$232	58
307 Argonaut St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	4mo	$410,000	$293	54
103 Johns Island Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+14%)	3mo	$499,900	$276	43
109 Johns Island Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+15%)	2mo	$499,900	$275	41
201 Birdie Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-15%)	4mo	$380,000	$282	41
119 Johns Island Way	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+14%)	5mo	$482,500	$267	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,747
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,820
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,777/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $298	+0% $227	+5% $156	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $138	+0% $227	+5% $317	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $291	base $227	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 Clara Ave Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,175	$1.92	14d	15	0.63mi
14108 Pelican St Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	1832	$2,700	$1.47	14d	1	0.65mi
303 Lighthouse Rd Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	22d	1	0.72mi
201 Cape Cod Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,700	$1.42	22d	1	0.74mi
1105 Clara Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,099	$2.24	14d	14	0.81mi
901 Pelican Pl Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1746	$1,650	$0.95	22d	1	0.92mi
302 Cabana Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$1,806	$1.53	14d	15	0.95mi
335 Madison Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1682	$2,599	$1.55	22d	1	1.03mi
12011 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523327P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$3,796	$3.53	14d	1	1.10mi
14701 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523326P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$3,263	$2.51	22d	1	1.16mi
800 Grand Panama Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,699	$2.76	14d	30	1.19mi
11709 Seashore Ln Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $250,000 Active
2. 2021-12-14
   historical
3. 2010-08-23
   listed $179,000
4. 1997-08-15
   listed $49,900 51-char remark

   Show marketing remark (51 chars)

   LISTING OFFICE IS A BNON. LISTING AGENT IS A BNONA.

5. 1997-07-30
   soldstatus $49,900 51-char remark

   Show marketing remark (51 chars)

   LISTING OFFICE IS A BNON. LISTING AGENT IS A BNONA.

6. 1997-07-01
   soldstatus $49,900
7. 1984-04-01
   soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,777 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,777
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $3,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2172.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $250,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2010-08-23 Listed $179,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-08-15 Listed $49,900 CPARMLS
• 1997-07-30 Sold (MLS) $49,900 CPARMLS
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,777 · -32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.