21456 Magnolia Dr · Houston, TX 77357

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 7,000 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $201k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home delivers comfort, value, and serious extras. The kitchen stands out with granite countertops, electric appliances, and a refrigerator that stays. Even better—washer, dryer, and deep freeze are all included. Enjoy peace of mind with a slab foundation (no known issues), no history of flooding, a 2021 HVAC system, an upgraded composite roof, updated electrical panel including a generator port and updated plumbing. The enclosed back porch (approx. 9’ x 20’) adds versatile living space, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring mature fig, apple, and orange trees, two storage sheds, a parking awning, and conve

Key facts

• Electric appliances
• Included deep freeze
• Included dryer

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ELECTRIC APPLIANCES
• INCLUDED REFRIGERATOR
• INCLUDED WASHER
• INCLUDED DRYER
• INCLUDED DEEP FREEZE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Thermostat listed as an energy-efficient feature; Lot features include subdivision setting and wooded areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; Garage with workshop; Additional parking; 3 carport spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Full ownership; Living area approximately 1,390
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1977; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Deck; Private yard; Partial backyard fence; Storage shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Utility room (first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air (electric, heat pump)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with attached bath; Ceiling fan(s); Window treatments / coverings; Programmable thermostat; Bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 984 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,379
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -1.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21500 Vermillion	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+9%)	16mo	$375,000	$248	55
21142 Walnut Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	19mo	$255,000	$204	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,734
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-978
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 984
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,687/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $454	+0% $397	+5% $341	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $314	+0% $397	+5% $480	+10% $564
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $448	base $397	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,599 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,599 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,599 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,599 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $204,599 939-char remark
16. 2026-05-02
    price $209,000 939-char remark
17. 2026-04-09
    price $219,000 939-char remark
18. 2026-03-28
    listed $229,000 Active 939-char remark
19. 1991-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,687 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,955/yr (+$163/mo · 115.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,687
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $4,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-19 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $204,599 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $229,000 NTREIS
• 1991-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,687 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.